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Tuesday 31 May 2016

Welcome Back Readers!

Hi Readers, It's been quite a while since I last posted here but I just want to let you know that I will be back posting informative articles on a regular basis. Thanks all for visiting my blog and please come back again.

Regards,

Barnabas


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Monday 4 August 2014

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Binary options are an exciting way of investing in the financial markets. Rather than purchasing the asset itself, investors can speculate on which direction they estimate an asset will move in. To make profit you should predict the direction the asset’s price will go: up or down! When an option expires, you can be “in the money” or “out of the money”. Being “In the money” means that the trend moved in your favor and you've gained a profit. Being “out of the money” means it moved against your favor, and you've lost on this trade.
When you trade in plain options (not binary options), gains or losses vary according to how far the asset’s price had moved. However, in binary options, gains and losses are fixed regardless of how “deep” the option is in or out of the money. If the option is in the money, your profit will be 65-80% of your investment. If the option is out of the money at the expiry date, you will always get a fixed return of 15%. That means your risks are controlled, and you always know your potential profits and losses prior to making your investment.
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Monday 14 July 2014

Economic events of the coming week

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Monday: The Final estimate of May’s Industrial Production data will be released in Japan, with the last print indicating a moderate 0.8% annual increase. Data will also be provided on the Eurozone’s Industrial Production, which analysts expect will see a 1.2% monthly decrease.

Tuesday: Consumer Price Index data will be released in Italy and the U.K. In Germany, the ZEW Survey will see light, with analysts expecting some moderation in both the Current Situation component, as well as ‘Expectations’. In the U.S., the Empire State Manufacturing Survey will be released, as well as June’s Advance Retail Sales. Additionally, Fed Governor Yellen will give a Semi-Annual Testimony to Senate.

Wednesday: China will release data on its rapidly growing Retail Sales, as well as less so Industrial Production and Gross Domestic Product. The U.K. will see the release of some labor market statistics, among these are Jobless Claims and the International Labor Organization’s Unemployment rate. In the U.S. the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications will see light, as well as the Producer Price Index and June’s Industrial Production.

Thursday: The Final estimate of June’s Consumer Price Index for the Eurozone will be released. In the U.S., the weekly Housing Starts print will see light, recently being a hair over one million monthly. Also due is the weekly Initial Jobless Claims, still above but close to 300K.

Friday: The University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence Index and the Conference Board’s Leading Index will be released.
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Portugal raises global concerns

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Equity markets took a slight beating last week as Portugal's second largest bank, Banco Espirito Santo, reported that it held 1.18 billion Euros in loans, securities and other items of its parent company Espirito Santo International. The update was provided after Santo International failed a payment on one of its commercial paper. In spite of the Portuguese central bank attempting to attempted to reassure markets that Santo International's solvency is "solid", the following day saw Banco Espirito Santo downgraded by both Moody's, as well as Standard & Poor's rating services.

Moody's did say that the downgrade should not affect the Portuguese government bond's rating, recently revised to Ba2. At this point, however, concerns of a run on the banks in Portugal induced a pessimistic sentiment in equity markets. The Spanish IBEX 35 Index lost 1.94% between Thursday and Friday. The German DAX lost 1.45% between the two days, and the French CAC40 lost nearly 1%. U.S. equity markets were less affected, however, they did gain some fuel from the aforementioned dovish minutes.

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Fed sees QE ending in October

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According to June's meeting minutes, released last week, the Fed is expected to end the third round of the quantitative easing in October, should the economy evolve as the Federal Open Market Committee members anticipate. Following a prolonged period in which the Fed has purchased 85 billion Dollars’ worth of assets every month, the Fed's expectation for the end of easing is an historical landmark in U.S. monetary history. With this forward guidance clearly paved, the minutes addressed FOMC members' view of the U.S. and global economy, and the way that translates to future policy.

Among the factors the Fed members' had in mind, it was noted that consumer spending had been supported by household net worth rather than income gains. One plausible explanation would argue that this increase in household net worth is backed by the aforementioned easing, leading to inflating asset prices. On the other side of the equation, the fact that income gains were held back might be the result of this monetary easing not trickling down to the real economy, leading to an increase at the labor markets' demand side. Regarding this, Fed members express a view by which a pickup in income would be the one to support a sustained income in consumer spending. Undoubtedly, welfare effects do not last forever.

Committee members' view of the economy as recovering in some aspects, yet still problematic in others naturally translated to ambiguity regarding the way those members see the federal funds rate, in the future. Among these issues, most participants were said to expect the federal funds rate to remain below their long term objectives at the end of 2016. Half of these participants associated the low level of the federal funds rate with insufficient inflation. Other participants expressed concern of a combination consisting, inter alia, of "lower equilibrium real interest rate, continuing headwinds from the financial crisis and subsequent recession". As Yellen said once, monetary policy is not a panacea. Recently, it also needs to cope with growing resilience by the problems it wishes to solve, as well growing side effect. 

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Monday 30 June 2014

Economic events of this week

 
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Monday: Preliminary estimates on Japan’s Industrial production data are due and analysts expect an annual increase of 1.5%. In the Eurozone, M3 Money Supply data will be published. The U.K. will gain a glimpse of housing-price-fuelling Mortgage Approvals. Preliminary figures of June’s Consumer Price Indices throughout the Eurozone. Indications will be dispersed regarding the U.S. supply side, with the release of the MNI Chicago Business Barometer. Also due in the U.S., May’s Pending Home Sales and Dallas Fed Manufacturing outlook.

Tuesday: The Tankan Business Conditions forecast will be released in Japan. China will see the release of the official and the HSBC’s, manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Indices. The Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Indices will be published in Spain, Italy, France and the U.K alongside the Eurozone aggregate figure. Additionally, labor market data will be released in Germany, in addition to aggregated Eurozone figures. In the U.S., final estimates of June’s Purchasing Managers’ Index will be published, as well as ISM Manufacturing data.

Wednesday: Japan will publish data on its monetary base, recently indicating the number of Yens circulating in the economy to increase by an annual 45.6%. In the U.K., Nationwide House Prices data will be published. Labor market data will be published in Spain, analysts expect to see a 155K decrease in the number of Unemployed. In the U.S., the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index will be published, as well as June’s ADP Employment Change and May’s Factory Orders.

Thursday: The day will kick off with a plethora of Purchasing Managers’ Indices for the service sectors from the Eurozone. The ECB is scheduled to announce interest rates. Analysts, however, expect no change of these, following the previous month’s drop of rates. In the U.S., May’s Trade Balance data will be published, following by June’s Change in Nonfarm Payrolls. Also due is June’s Unemployment rate, currently at 6.3%, as well as the weekly Initial Jobless Claims.

Friday: In Germany, May’s Factory Orders data will be published, recently presenting a 6.3% annual increase.
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Abenomics is not going as planned

Last week presented a good opportunity to review the implications of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe's ultra-expansionary monetary policies. On Monday, the Nation's Central Bank Governor, Kuroda, addressed Japan's Association of Corporate Executives, noting that Japanese inflation currently sits at 1.5%, when adjusting for price increases stemming from April's consumption tax hike. Kuroda expressed hope that rising inflation would push individuals towards higher expenditure levels as he stressed that "we need to achieve a world in which people engage in economic activities based on the assumption that two percent inflation is a given". 

When the Nation’s Consumer Price Index was released the following Thursday, it indicated that Japan’s Annual inflation has increased by a noteworthy 0.3% over the previous month’s print. Sadly, inflation’s closing in on Kuroda’s target did not seem to encourage Japanese consumer sentiment. Alongside with the publishing of the CPI, May’s Household Spending presented an 8% annual contraction, versus merely 4.6% in April. 

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