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Monday, 28 October 2013

Weekly Market Review - Post shutdown

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The post-shutdown week provided an opportunity to review the fiscal feud’s result on the American economy, or rather the anticipation for it as expressed in September’s data. September’s Existing Home Sales, published Monday, presented a slight blow to U.S. real-estate activity, with an approximate 2% decrease from the previous month’s figure, to 5.29 million units changing hands. Tuesday’s labor data was quite a different story. With only a 148K increase in Nonfarm Payrolls, it seems that the shutdown’s blow to the U.S. labor market was harsher compared to August’s figure, which presented a higher number of jobs created, 193K. In September 2012, when the U.S. economy was deeper in the great recession, Nonfarm payrolls presented only a slightly lower 138K Nonfarm jobs created. The unemployment rate dropped down to 7.2%.

Additional slightly negative data on the U.S. market were presented Wednesday, as MBA Mortgage Applications decreased by -0.6%. Continuing its negative sentiment since the beginning of the Shutdown, Initial Jobless Claims was still high and revealed on Thursday that no less than 350K of those were made during last week. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence presenting a decrease from a level of 75.2 to 73.2.

The U.S. investor sentiment was not affected much by all these, as that data could be considered as temporary responses to a unique situation. The Nasdaq index presented a mild, yet notable, 0.7% increase during the previous week. Similarly, a 0.9% increase was recorded at the S&P 500 index. 

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Wednesday, 23 October 2013

Economic events of this week

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The resolution of the U.S. shutdown is expected to bring about a slew of market shifting economic reports that have been postponed due to it.

Monday: Chinese consumer and producer price indices will be published. 

Tuesday: Japan’s final Industrial Production data for August will be published, following a preliminary figure indicating an annual decrease of -0.2%, released last month. CPIs (consumer price indices) will be published in France and the U.K., to complete the European price puzzle.

Wednesday: Jobless claims change will be published in the U.K., as well as the Eurozone’s aggregated Consumer Price Index. MBA Mortgage Applications will be published in the U.S. 

Thursday: This is the current deadline for the U.S. debt ceiling, so this is the main event of the day. Additionally, Retail Sales data will be published in the U.K. Initial Jobless Claims are also due for the U.S., after those surged last week due to the Government shutdown.

Friday: Official Chinese GDP data for Q3 will be published, expected to present an impressive 7.8% annual increase. 


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Monday, 21 October 2013

Other economic events of this week


With the U.S. Shutdown finally over, some postponed economic figures will finally be published. The release of some was already rescheduled; others are still to be determined.

Monday: September’s Trade Balance data will be published in Japan, alongside the All Industry Activity Index for August. Existing Home Sales in the U.S. are also due. 

Tuesday: The unemployment rate will be published in the U.S., alongside Change in Non-farm Payrolls.

Wednesday: The French Manufacturing Industry’s Confidence Index is due, as well as MBA Mortgage Applications for the U.S. The Eurozone’s Consumer Confidence Index will be published, with economists predicting more of the moderate improvement which the index has enjoyed since the beginning of the year. 

Thursday: A two-day summit on the State of the Economy will be held in Brussels by European Union Leaders. Purchasing Managers’ Indices will be published across the Eurozone, as well as the quarterly Spanish Unemployment report, which presented an alarming 26.3% figure during the previous quarter. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims will also be published after surging recently due to the Shutdown.

Friday: Consumer Price Indices will be published in Japan. A Slew of data from the old continent is also due, including German IFO Surveys. Italian Retail sales data, Eurozone Aggregate Money supply and advanced indications for the U.K.’s third quarter’s Gross Domestic Product. The U.S. will see publications of Durable Goods New Orders and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence Index. 


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Better news from China

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Encouraging data from China became more evident as the dust of the U.S. fiscal crisis settled. It became clearer that Chinese production for local demand is more profitable with the Consumer price Index exhibiting a 3.1% annual rise, while producers pay less to support their production process with the Producer Price Index decreasing by an annual 1.3%. Thursday marked a very positive point for the Chinese economy as the Year over Year Gross Domestic Product showed a 7.8% annual increase, quite the positive note from the concerns raised by the previous quarter’s 7.5%. Additional positive data was the Industrial Production exhibiting a 9.6% annual increase. The hypothesis derived from the increasing wedge between Consumer and Producer Prices was also evident at retail sales, which showed a 13.3% increase.


The improvement in China could be regarded as somewhat predictable, given the stimulus program unveiled in July. However, the revised data certainly put smiles on a few faces in Beijing, as it will be much easier for china to reach its 7.5% annual GDP growth goal. Evidently, the positive data sent Hong Kong’s Hang Seng up 1.1%, while the Shanghai Composite index gained another 0.2%. 


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Shutdown results

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Last Thursday, the U.S. Government finally ended its 16-day shutdown. The shutdown’s resolution came following Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell reaching an agreement for funding the Government and suspending the debit limit, for the time being. Evidently, the shutdown left U.S. President Obama wounded, but not broken. A Gallup poll on Thursday showed that the negative U.S. citizen sentiment sent approval rates of Obama’s work down to 42%, however, it seems like the real loss was of the Republican Party. 

The party failed to meet its goals of halting the affordable healthcare act, while causing much of a hassle to everyone involved. In an interview to Cincinnati radio station WLW, the Republican speaker John Boehner was quoted saying: “We fought the good fight. We just didn’t win”, as lawmakers readied to pass the historical bill.
The compromise achieved only buys time, as it merely reopens the government until January 15th, and suspends the debt ceiling until Feb 7th. This does seem like a good opportunity to examine intermediate results, but surprisingly, equity markets are generally better off now than they were at the start of the Shutdown. Following the slight equity rally, right after the end of the shutdown, the Nasdaq Composite Index closed Thursday’s trading at around 3,863 points, concluding to a 1.8% increase since the beginning of the Shutdown. The S&P 500 presented an even more impressive 2.8% increase since the beginning of the month, as it rose to an all-time high on Thursday. Crude Oil, on the other hand, did not express the same bullish enthusiasm as the lowered demand due to the Shutdown led its trading to $100.7 a barrel, $1.6 lower than the start of the month.

On a nation-wide scope, the Shutdown definitely left its toll on the U.S. national accounts. JP Morgan has cut the U.S. Q4 GDP forecast to 2% from 2.5% last week, while Morgan Stanley expected that 0.4% will be skimmed off the headline figure. Meanwhile, with the debt ceiling off the table, speculator activity in the U.S. market can return to discuss the Fed’s tapering. 

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Tuesday, 15 October 2013

Economic events of this week

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The resolution of the U.S. shutdown is expected to bring about a slew of market shifting economic reports that have been postponed due to it.

Monday: Chinese consumer and producer price indices will be published. 

Tuesday: Japan’s final Industrial Production data for August will be published, following a preliminary figure indicating an annual decrease of -0.2%, released last month. CPIs (consumer price indices) will be published in France and the U.K., to complete the European price puzzle.

Wednesday: Jobless claims change will be published in the U.K., as well as the Eurozone’s aggregated Consumer Price Index. MBA Mortgage Applications will be published in the U.S. 

Thursday: This is the current deadline for the U.S. debt ceiling, so this is the main event of the day. Additionally, Retail Sales data will be published in the U.K. Initial Jobless Claims are also due for the U.S., after those surged last week due to the Government shutdown.

Friday: Official Chinese GDP data for Q3 will be published, expected to present an impressive 7.8% annual increase. 

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Saturday, 3 March 2012

Whats' next for Arsenal after Thrashing Tottenham 5 - 2?

It was yet a great weekend of football in the English Premier League. Manchester City was at home to Blackburn, Manchester United away at Norwich City, Chelsea at home to Bolton and the biggest clash of all was on Sunday the 26th February. It was the north London Derby between Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspurs. Liverpool was not in action in the premier league but were playing in the Carling Cup final at Wembley where they beat Cardiff City 3 – 2 on post match penalties to lift the cup.
Tomas Rocisky celebrates after scoring Arsenal's third goal
The Gunners were at home – Emirates Stadium and they desperately needed a win after a disastrous week where they lost by four goals to nil in Milan, AC Milan all but knocking them out of The Champions League ahead of their return leg at the Emirates, Sunderland knocked them out of the FA cup where they won by two goals to nil. It was the second visit for the Gunners in seven days after beating the Black Cats 2 – 1 in the premier league.

Spurs - in the ascendancy over Arsenal for so much of the season - looked to be on course for the first back-to-back league wins at the home of their arch-rivals for 86 years as an early goal from Louis Saha and Emmanuel Adebayor's penalty put them in a commanding position within 34 minutes.
Arsenal recovered from two goals down to thrash Tottenham 5 – 2, thanks to goals from Sagna, Robin Van Persie and Tomas Rocisky, who was the man of the match as he caused the Spur’s defence a lot of problems. Theo Walcott added a brace to finish the rout in the second half after having a less impressive first half.

This result just gave them not only three points that they really needed but reasserted their superiority in London and restored their pride. The Gunners face Liverpool at Arnfield at 12:45 GMT. This will be an interesting game because both teams are buoyed from their wins the previous weekend and I know many fans can’t wait to watch. Both teams are fighting for the fourth spot together with Chelsea who saw off Bolton Wanderers 3 – 0 at Stamford Bridge.

Manchester United needed a late strike from veteran Ryan Giggs who was playing his 900th game for United to secure all the three points. He converted an Ashley Young's cross at the far post in the 90th minute and this moved them two points behind league leaders Manchester City. Manchester United will face Tottenham at white hart lane on Sunday.

EPL RESULTS FOR 25TH/26TH FEBRUARY 2012
Sun 26 Feb
Sun 26 Feb
  Stoke 2-0 Swansea
Sun 26 Feb
Sat 25 Feb
Sat 25 Feb
 QPR 0-1 Fulham
Sat 25 Feb
Sat 25 Feb
Sat 25 Feb
Sat 25 Feb

EPL FIXTURES 3TH MARCH 2012
12:45
  Blackburn  v  Aston Villa
15:00
15:00
 QPR  v  Everton
15:00
 Stoke  v  Norwich
15:00
15:00
 Wigan  v  Swansea
15:00

EPL FIXTURES 4TH MARCH 2012
12:00
14:05
16:10

What’s your predictions for today’s games?
Enjoy watching!