Information Epicenter: October 2013

Wednesday 30 October 2013

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Tuesday 29 October 2013

Great results for the top teams in the English Premier League

Luis Suarez scores against West Brom at Anfield

Well well well..... the English Premier League season 2013-2014 is well underway and nine games down the line, Arsenal is still at the top of the log with 22 points thanks to the inform Ramsey who has scored five premier league goals this season and their top quality signing from Real Madrid Mezut Ozil not forgetting Mathieu Flamini, followed by Chelsea on 20 points same as Liverpool who have an inferior goal difference. Tottenham have 19 points, Southampton 18, same as Everton while Manchester City have 16 points. Former champions Manchester United have 14 points showing the transition from Alex Fergusson their former manager to their new one David Moyes hasn’t been easy.

Last weekend saw Arsenal travel to Crystal Palace. Arsenal managed to get a win of 2 – 0 with Arteta turning from hero to villain. He scored the first goal from the penalty spot following a foul on Gnabry but got sent off rather harshly for a foul on former gooner Chamakh, 35 yards away from goal. Arsenal got the second goal from the hardworking Giroud with the assist coming from one Ramsey ‘Rambo’.

Chelsea got a huge result against Man City at Stamford Bridge beating them 2 – 1 thanks to Torres capitalising on a Joe Hart mistake on ninety minutes. He continued with his fine form from his Champions League exploits to punish Man City towards. He had missed a great opportunity to put Chelsea ahead but turned provider for the opening goal for his team which was tucked in by Andre Schurrle.

Manchester United put a stop to their terrible start in defence of the title by coming back from behind twice to beat Stoke 3 goals to 2 at Old Trafford.

Liverpool who are a team that appear unstoppable at the moment due to the great partnership of Luis Suarez and Daniel Sturridge upfront comprehensively beat West Brom 4 – 1 at Anfield with the Uruguayan scoring a hat-trick.

Tottenham Hotspur beat a stubborn Hull City from the penalty spot to earn a crucial three points.

The season is quite unpredictable with the number one spot having exchanged between so many teams, I have even lost count. Maybe the top six teams excluding Manchester United who are having a difficult post Alex Fergusson season. Arsenal have remained at the top for several weeks though and whether that continues remains to be seen bearing in mind they will be meeting with Liverpool next Saturday (Nov 2) at the Emirates Stadium..... for now let’s see how Asene Wenger boys perform in the League One Cup tie against Chelsea tonight.

Photo Courtesy: BBC SPORT

Monday 28 October 2013

Economic events of this week

Monday: Business Confidence data will be presented in Italy, following a 3.5 point deterioration in Consumer Confidence that was published last week. September’s Industrial Production will be published in the U.S., with analyst consensus predicting a moderate 0.4% monthly increase.

Tuesday: Japan’s Jobless Rate data will be published. Analyst consensus predicts that the aforementioned affords by Abe will lead unemployment back to the 4.0% figure. September’s Producer Price Index will be published in the U.S., following a healthy 0.3% monthly increase presented for August. Adjusted Retail Sales will be published in the U.S. The official U.S. Consumer Confidence Index is also due, following the aforementioned decline at the University of Michigan’s figure.

Wednesday: Japanese Industrial Production will be published. Due to the weakening Yen, analysts expect it to present a 1.8% monthly increase. Both the Gross Domestic Product, as well as Consumer Price Index, will be published in Spain. Germany is due to publish its Unemployment rate, which is currently at a rather low level of 6.9%, certainly compared with the rest of the continent. MBA Mortgage Applications are due to published in the U.S. ADP Employment Change will also be published, as well as the U.S. Consumer Price Index. Lastly, the FOMC will publish its rate decision and perhaps a few words on when tapering is due.

Thursday: U.K. Housing Prices will be published, following growing concerns that a bubble is inflating in that sector. Initial Jobless Claims will be published in the U.S. The Bank of Japan will also issue its Target Rate, alongside its Monetary Policy Statement.

Friday: Purchasing Managers Indices for the manufacturing sector will be published in China and in the U.S.

Weekly Market Review - Abe needs to cash the check

Last week presented some significant data in the Japanese economy. This yielded a natural opportunity to examine where the economic policy, advocated by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, led the country so far. The week kicked off with the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishing the country’s trade balance statistics. At -¥918.6 billion, September’s Trade Balance appeared as an improvement over the previous month’s -¥962.8. However, the Japanese exports presented only a 11.5% increase during the trailing 12 months, much lower than an expected 15.6% predicted by analysts.

On Friday, the hope that the inflow of cash to Japan would help boost prices dispersed, with the publishing of the Consumer Price Index. The Index’s headline figure presented a relatively high 1.1% annual increase of prices. This was likely the result of the weakening Yen and volatiles such as food, as the Consumer Price Index, (excluding Energy and Fresh Food) presented a more moderate 0.7% annual increase. The 0.7% core increase figure is high compared to the negative figures the index suffered since 2008, should no accompanying wage hike take place, increasing prices could lead to a decrease of the Japanese consumer’s purchasing power and a resultant decrease of GDP. Indeed, the Japanese Monthly Cash Earnings, measuring mostly wages, presented a -0.9% annual decline in August. Moreover, analyst consensus predicts September’s figure to present -0.4%, which is not much better.

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Weekly Market Review - Post shutdown

The post-shutdown week provided an opportunity to review the fiscal feud’s result on the American economy, or rather the anticipation for it as expressed in September’s data. September’s Existing Home Sales, published Monday, presented a slight blow to U.S. real-estate activity, with an approximate 2% decrease from the previous month’s figure, to 5.29 million units changing hands. Tuesday’s labor data was quite a different story. With only a 148K increase in Nonfarm Payrolls, it seems that the shutdown’s blow to the U.S. labor market was harsher compared to August’s figure, which presented a higher number of jobs created, 193K. In September 2012, when the U.S. economy was deeper in the great recession, Nonfarm payrolls presented only a slightly lower 138K Nonfarm jobs created. The unemployment rate dropped down to 7.2%.

Additional slightly negative data on the U.S. market were presented Wednesday, as MBA Mortgage Applications decreased by -0.6%. Continuing its negative sentiment since the beginning of the Shutdown, Initial Jobless Claims was still high and revealed on Thursday that no less than 350K of those were made during last week. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence presenting a decrease from a level of 75.2 to 73.2.

The U.S. investor sentiment was not affected much by all these, as that data could be considered as temporary responses to a unique situation. The Nasdaq index presented a mild, yet notable, 0.7% increase during the previous week. Similarly, a 0.9% increase was recorded at the S&P 500 index.

Wednesday 23 October 2013

Economic events of this week

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The resolution of the U.S. shutdown is expected to bring about a slew of market shifting economic reports that have been postponed due to it.

Monday: Chinese consumer and producer price indices will be published.

Tuesday: Japan’s final Industrial Production data for August will be published, following a preliminary figure indicating an annual decrease of -0.2%, released last month. CPIs (consumer price indices) will be published in France and the U.K., to complete the European price puzzle.

Wednesday: Jobless claims change will be published in the U.K., as well as the Eurozone’s aggregated Consumer Price Index. MBA Mortgage Applications will be published in the U.S.

Thursday: This is the current deadline for the U.S. debt ceiling, so this is the main event of the day. Additionally, Retail Sales data will be published in the U.K. Initial Jobless Claims are also due for the U.S., after those surged last week due to the Government shutdown.

Friday: Official Chinese GDP data for Q3 will be published, expected to present an impressive 7.8% annual increase.

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Monday 21 October 2013

Other economic events of this week

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With the U.S. Shutdown finally over, some postponed economic figures will finally be published. The release of some was already rescheduled; others are still to be determined.

Monday: September’s Trade Balance data will be published in Japan, alongside the All Industry Activity Index for August. Existing Home Sales in the U.S. are also due.

Tuesday: The unemployment rate will be published in the U.S., alongside Change in Non-farm Payrolls.

Wednesday: The French Manufacturing Industry’s Confidence Index is due, as well as MBA Mortgage Applications for the U.S. The Eurozone’s Consumer Confidence Index will be published, with economists predicting more of the moderate improvement which the index has enjoyed since the beginning of the year.

Thursday: A two-day summit on the State of the Economy will be held in Brussels by European Union Leaders. Purchasing Managers’ Indices will be published across the Eurozone, as well as the quarterly Spanish Unemployment report, which presented an alarming 26.3% figure during the previous quarter. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims will also be published after surging recently due to the Shutdown.

Friday: Consumer Price Indices will be published in Japan. A Slew of data from the old continent is also due, including German IFO Surveys. Italian Retail sales data, Eurozone Aggregate Money supply and advanced indications for the U.K.’s third quarter’s Gross Domestic Product. The U.S. will see publications of Durable Goods New Orders and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence Index.

Better news from China

Encouraging data from China became more evident as the dust of the U.S. fiscal crisis settled. It became clearer that Chinese production for local demand is more profitable with the Consumer price Index exhibiting a 3.1% annual rise, while producers pay less to support their production process with the Producer Price Index decreasing by an annual 1.3%. Thursday marked a very positive point for the Chinese economy as the Year over Year Gross Domestic Product showed a 7.8% annual increase, quite the positive note from the concerns raised by the previous quarter’s 7.5%. Additional positive data was the Industrial Production exhibiting a 9.6% annual increase. The hypothesis derived from the increasing wedge between Consumer and Producer Prices was also evident at retail sales, which showed a 13.3% increase.

The improvement in China could be regarded as somewhat predictable, given the stimulus program unveiled in July. However, the revised data certainly put smiles on a few faces in Beijing, as it will be much easier for china to reach its 7.5% annual GDP growth goal. Evidently, the positive data sent Hong Kong’s Hang Seng up 1.1%, while the Shanghai Composite index gained another 0.2%.

Shutdown results

Last Thursday, the U.S. Government finally ended its 16-day shutdown. The shutdown’s resolution came following Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell reaching an agreement for funding the Government and suspending the debit limit, for the time being. Evidently, the shutdown left U.S. President Obama wounded, but not broken. A Gallup poll on Thursday showed that the negative U.S. citizen sentiment sent approval rates of Obama’s work down to 42%, however, it seems like the real loss was of the Republican Party.

The party failed to meet its goals of halting the affordable healthcare act, while causing much of a hassle to everyone involved. In an interview to Cincinnati radio station WLW, the Republican speaker John Boehner was quoted saying: “We fought the good fight. We just didn’t win”, as lawmakers readied to pass the historical bill.
The compromise achieved only buys time, as it merely reopens the government until January 15th, and suspends the debt ceiling until Feb 7th. This does seem like a good opportunity to examine intermediate results, but surprisingly, equity markets are generally better off now than they were at the start of the Shutdown. Following the slight equity rally, right after the end of the shutdown, the Nasdaq Composite Index closed Thursday’s trading at around 3,863 points, concluding to a 1.8% increase since the beginning of the Shutdown. The S&P 500 presented an even more impressive 2.8% increase since the beginning of the month, as it rose to an all-time high on Thursday. Crude Oil, on the other hand, did not express the same bullish enthusiasm as the lowered demand due to the Shutdown led its trading to $100.7 a barrel, $1.6 lower than the start of the month.

On a nation-wide scope, the Shutdown definitely left its toll on the U.S. national accounts. JP Morgan has cut the U.S. Q4 GDP forecast to 2% from 2.5% last week, while Morgan Stanley expected that 0.4% will be skimmed off the headline figure. Meanwhile, with the debt ceiling off the table, speculator activity in the U.S. market can return to discuss the Fed’s tapering.

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Tuesday 15 October 2013

Economic events of this week

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