Economic events of this week

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Monday: The Purchasing Manager’s Index for the Manufacturing sector will be published in Italy, France, Germany and the Eurozone. Factory orders will be published in the U.S. 

Tuesday: The annual growth of the Japanese Monetary Base will be published, while the last figure indicated no less than a 46.1% annual growth since last year. The BoJ Governor Kuroda will hold a speech in Osaka in a Business Leaders meeting. The Royal Bank of Australia will announce its rate decision. Net change in Unemployment will also be published in Spain, with analysts expecting no less than 82K employees entering the economy. The Troika is scheduled to return to Greece for a bailout review. Halifax House Price indices will be published and shed further light on the magnitude of the suspected U.K. housing bubble.

Wednesday: A lot of second-third tier data will be published, including European PMI indices for the service sectors, Industrial and Manufacturing Production in the U.K., Retail Sales across the Eurozone and German Factory Orders. The Leading Index will also be published in the U.S.

Thursday: Iran is set to convene with the P5+1 and discuss the former's nuclear program. Industrial Production will be published in Germany. The Bank of England will announce its official rate, and the ECB is set to do the same for the Eurozone, followed with Draghi holding a post rate decision press conference. Initial Jobless Claims will be published in the U.S., with analysts expecting further decreases towards pre-shutdown levels. Additionally in the U.S., advanced GDP levels will be published, and in the equity front, the Initial Public Offering of Twitter will take place.

Friday: French Industrial Production data will be published, as well as U.S. change in Nonfarm payrolls and Canadian and U.S. Unemployment. U.S. consumer statistics will conclude the week, namely U.S. Personal Income and Spending, and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence. 

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Positive indications from the east

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The Fed’s statement from Wednesday insinuated that tapering could be around the corner, while the Bank of Japan policy board statement, released hours later, declared this is clearly not the case for the Japanese economy. The BoJ announced it would continue to increase the monetary base by an annual 60 to 70 trillion Yens.


The monetary base increases had been so far responsible for the Yen being widely considered the world’s worst performing major currency, as it slid about 20% versus the Dollar and about 25% versus the Euro since late 2012. Evidently, the BoJ’s announcement on expansionary action was already encapsulated into market prices, as it made only a minor impact on USD/JPY spot prices. Things appeared better in China, as optimism regarding the Chinese economy spread – the Chinese Purchasing Managers’ Index presented a noteworthy increase to 51.4 points on Friday. 

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Assessing the wind’s direction

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The U.S. economy showed mixed signs at the beginning of last week. Industrial Production data for September presented an impressive 0.6% increase. Manufacturing Production, on the other hand, presented only a negligible 0.1% increase, versus expectations for 0.3%. This was the result of increases in carmakers' output withheld by declines in furniture, appliances and computers.

Wednesday presented growing anticipation to the publishing of Fed’s rate decision. As expected, the announcement did not suggest tapering is imminent by any means, yet noted that the U.S. economy is expanding at a moderate pace. As monthly purchases were kept at the usual 85 billion Dollars a month, the statement did suggest that the Government shutdown did not cause major damage to the economy. While in the September announcement the Fed was concerned that the higher market rates could lead to slower improvement in the economy, the same was not mentioned in Wednesday’s announcement.

Thursday was probably the surprise of the week. In Chicago, it seems that no bad impact was recorded from the government shutdown, as the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index surged to a 31-month high. However, it was interpreted as bad news by equity markets, which saw the good figure as something that could induce a sooner QE3 tapering by the Fed. Whether Chicago is the prophet for an emerging U.S. economy or whether we are just going to see a surge of inventories next month, is yet to be seen.

The hectic week concluded on Friday with the publishing of the ISM manufacturing survey. Similar to the Fed’s announcement, survey participants did not identify impact on their business from the Government’s shutdown as the survey presented an impressive figure of 56.4, beating expectations for a 55.0 print, with exports surging 5 points to 57. However, unlike Thursday’s equity pessimism due to concerns of resulting tapering, Friday marked quite a positive day for equities with the Dow presenting a 0.45% daily increase, and the S&P 500 index with a 0.29% increase.

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Arsenal beats Liverpool 2 – 0 to extend their Lead at the top to five points as Man City thrash Norwich 7 - 0.

It was yet another exciting and busy weekend in the English Premier League with a clash of titans in the late kick off on Saturday involving league leaders Arsenal and third placed Liverpool at the Emirates.

Ramsey scores the second for Arsenal from 25 yards.

Arsenal showed resilience and quality to maintain their fine start to the season and stretch their advantage by beating Liverpool 2 – nil. Santi Cazorla gave Arsenal the lead with a fine first-half strike after his header struck the post and Aaron Ramsey scored his 10th goal of this campaign with a spectacular long-range effort on the hour. It can be argued that the win was down to Cazorla and Ramsey for their goals but captain Mikel Arteta gave a midfield masterclass which overshadowed his Livepool counterparts, setting the platform for a crucial win. The defensive discipline of Arsenal’s back four also contributed significantly to the win because Sturridge and Suarez were kept quite the whole game and had very few chances. Arsenal’s advanced midfielders; Carzola, Ozil and Ramsey roamed the field with such worrying ease that resulted in a comfortable win to push the Gunners five points clear at the top.

In the early kick off Chelsea were away to Newcastle United at St James Pack and what was thought to be a routine three points in the bag and a chance to move to the top of the league’s standings turned horribly wrong. Newcastle who have had a bad start to this campaign turned the heat on Chelsea and beat them by two goals to nil. They grew in confidence from a solid defensive first half and their offensive play in the second half paid off when Gouffran headed home Yohan Cabaye's free-kick. The final nail on Chelsea’s coffin came when Roic Remy curled in a shot from Vurnon Anita's pass. Apparently Mourinho has never won a single game at the Magpies home ground.

Manchester United who were away to Fulham continued their resurgence with a 3 – 1 win over Fulham. They scored three goals in a span of 13 minutes to pile pressure on Martin Jol. Antonio Valencia gave the defending champions the lead with an easy finish while Robin van Persie scored the second by rifling in at the near post before Rooney tapped in after 22 minutes. Fulham responded through Alex Kacanilic’s deflected shot with Darren Bent hitting the bar.

Sunderland suffered their eighth defeat in 10 premier league games after Lee Cattermole and Andre Dossena were sent off in the first half at Hull. An own goal by Carlos Cuellar earned Hull manager Steve Bruce victory over his former club at the KC Stadium. The result means Sunderland remain at second last with only 4 points.

Manchester City highlighted their credentials as title contenders with an emphatic win over jaded Norwich. City’s attacking took centre stage as the thrashed their opponents 7 – 0. Bradley Johnson’s own goal put City ahead before David Silva, Matija Nastasic and Alvaro Negredo struck. Yaya toure scored a free-kick, Sergio Aguero fired in before substitute Edin Dzeko swept home a seventh. This win is City’s biggest in the EPL. Norwish dropped into the bottom three. City are now fifth after Totenham’s goal les draw with Everton on Sunday.

Stoke who were playing Southampton at Britannia Stadium earned a one all draw courtesy of a goal from their goalkeeper Asmir Begovic. It was a bizarre goal which came from a long kick 97.5 yards away from goal. The kick cleared Southampton’s defence before bouncing over visiting goalkeeper Artur Boruc. Southampton restored parity when Jay Rodriguez scored the equalizer.

West Brom who were at home beat Crystal Palace 2 – 0 thanks to goals from Saido Berahino and Gareth McAuley.

West Ham drew 0 - 0 with Aston Villa. This ended a run of three home premier league deafeats. Christian Benteke came closest to scoring for the visitors when he headed Matthew Lowton's deep cross against the crossbar from six yards out.

Everton and Tottenham both passed up the chance to go second in the Premier Laegue after a frustrating standoff. Roberto Soldado missed with a header from Aaron Lennon’s cross. Hosts Everton improved after the interval ans they saw a penalty appeal rejected when Seamus Coleman went down under Jan Vertonghen’s challenge. Tottenham keeper Hugo Lloris played on despite suffering a heavy knock to the head from Romelu Lukaku.

In the Welsh Derby, Cardiff City beat Swansea 1 nil to move above them in 12^th place with 12 points while Swansea moved down one position to 13^th with 11 points from ten games. Steven Caulker’s towering header gave Cardiff victory. He rose above visiting defender Chico Flores after 62 minutes to direct Craig Bellamy’s corner past goalkeeper Michel Vorm.

 

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Great results for the top teams in the English Premier League

Luis Suarez scores against West Brom at Anfield

Well well well..... the English Premier League season 2013-2014 is well underway and nine games down the line, Arsenal is still at the top of the log with 22 points thanks to the inform Ramsey who has scored five premier league goals this season and their top quality signing from Real Madrid Mezut Ozil not forgetting Mathieu Flamini, followed by Chelsea on 20 points same as Liverpool who have an inferior goal difference. Tottenham have 19 points, Southampton 18, same as Everton while Manchester City have 16 points. Former champions Manchester United have 14 points showing the transition from Alex Fergusson their former manager to their new one David Moyes hasn’t been easy.

Last weekend saw Arsenal travel to Crystal Palace. Arsenal managed to get a win of 2 – 0 with Arteta turning from hero to villain. He scored the first goal from the penalty spot following a foul on Gnabry but got sent off rather harshly for a foul on former gooner Chamakh, 35 yards away from goal. Arsenal got the second goal from the hardworking Giroud with the assist coming from one Ramsey ‘Rambo’.

Chelsea got a huge result against Man City at Stamford Bridge beating them 2 – 1 thanks to Torres capitalising on a Joe Hart mistake on ninety minutes. He continued with his fine form from his Champions League exploits to punish Man City towards. He had missed a great opportunity to put Chelsea ahead but turned provider for the opening goal for his team which was tucked in by Andre Schurrle.

Manchester United put a stop to their terrible start in defence of the title by coming back from behind twice to beat Stoke 3 goals to 2 at Old Trafford.

Liverpool who are a team that appear unstoppable at the moment due to the great partnership of Luis Suarez and Daniel Sturridge upfront comprehensively beat West Brom 4 – 1 at Anfield with the Uruguayan scoring a hat-trick.

Tottenham Hotspur beat a stubborn Hull City from the penalty spot to earn a crucial three points.

The season is quite unpredictable with the number one spot having exchanged between so many teams, I have even lost count. Maybe the top six teams excluding Manchester United who are having  a difficult post Alex Fergusson season. Arsenal have remained at the top for several weeks though and whether that continues remains to be seen bearing in mind they will be meeting with Liverpool next Saturday (Nov 2) at the Emirates Stadium..... for now let’s see how Asene Wenger boys perform in the League One Cup tie against Chelsea tonight.

Photo Courtesy: BBC SPORT 

Economic events of this week

Monday: Business Confidence data will be presented in Italy, following a 3.5 point deterioration in Consumer Confidence that was published last week. September’s Industrial Production will be published in the U.S., with analyst consensus predicting a moderate 0.4% monthly increase. 

Tuesday: Japan’s Jobless Rate data will be published. Analyst consensus predicts that the aforementioned affords by Abe will lead unemployment back to the 4.0% figure. September’s Producer Price Index will be published in the U.S., following a healthy 0.3% monthly increase presented for August. Adjusted Retail Sales will be published in the U.S. The official U.S. Consumer Confidence Index is also due, following the aforementioned decline at the University of Michigan’s figure.

Wednesday: Japanese Industrial Production will be published. Due to the weakening Yen, analysts expect it to present a 1.8% monthly increase. Both the Gross Domestic Product, as well as Consumer Price Index, will be published in Spain. Germany is due to publish its Unemployment rate, which is currently at a rather low level of 6.9%, certainly compared with the rest of the continent. MBA Mortgage Applications are due to published in the U.S. ADP Employment Change will also be published, as well as the U.S. Consumer Price Index. Lastly, the FOMC will publish its rate decision and perhaps a few words on when tapering is due.

Thursday: U.K. Housing Prices will be published, following growing concerns that a bubble is inflating in that sector. Initial Jobless Claims will be published in the U.S. The Bank of Japan will also issue its Target Rate, alongside its Monetary Policy Statement.

Friday: Purchasing Managers Indices for the manufacturing sector will be published in China and in the U.S. 

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