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According to June's meeting minutes, released last week, the Fed is expected to end the third round of the quantitative easing in October, should the economy evolve as the Federal Open Market Committee members anticipate. Following a prolonged period in which the Fed has purchased 85 billion Dollars’ worth of assets every month, the Fed's expectation for the end of easing is an historical landmark in U.S. monetary history. With this forward guidance clearly paved, the minutes addressed FOMC members' view of the U.S. and global economy, and the way that translates to future policy.Among the factors the Fed members' had in mind, it was noted that consumer spending had been supported by household net worth rather than income gains. One plausible explanation would argue that this increase in household net worth is backed by the aforementioned easing, leading to inflating asset prices. On the other side of the equation, the fact that income gains were held back might be the result of this monetary easing not trickling down to the real economy, leading to an increase at the labor markets' demand side. Regarding this, Fed members express a view by which a pickup in income would be the one to support a sustained income in consumer spending. Undoubtedly, welfare effects do not last forever.
Committee members' view of the economy as recovering in some aspects, yet still problematic in others naturally translated to ambiguity regarding the way those members see the federal funds rate, in the future. Among these issues, most participants were said to expect the federal funds rate to remain below their long term objectives at the end of 2016. Half of these participants associated the low level of the federal funds rate with insufficient inflation. Other participants expressed concern of a combination consisting, inter alia, of "lower equilibrium real interest rate, continuing headwinds from the financial crisis and subsequent recession". As Yellen said once, monetary policy is not a panacea. Recently, it also needs to cope with growing resilience by the problems it wishes to solve, as well growing side effect.
