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Showing posts with label Eurozone. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Eurozone. Show all posts

Monday, 14 July 2014

Economic events of the coming week

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Monday: The Final estimate of May’s Industrial Production data will be released in Japan, with the last print indicating a moderate 0.8% annual increase. Data will also be provided on the Eurozone’s Industrial Production, which analysts expect will see a 1.2% monthly decrease.

Tuesday: Consumer Price Index data will be released in Italy and the U.K. In Germany, the ZEW Survey will see light, with analysts expecting some moderation in both the Current Situation component, as well as ‘Expectations’. In the U.S., the Empire State Manufacturing Survey will be released, as well as June’s Advance Retail Sales. Additionally, Fed Governor Yellen will give a Semi-Annual Testimony to Senate.

Wednesday: China will release data on its rapidly growing Retail Sales, as well as less so Industrial Production and Gross Domestic Product. The U.K. will see the release of some labor market statistics, among these are Jobless Claims and the International Labor Organization’s Unemployment rate. In the U.S. the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications will see light, as well as the Producer Price Index and June’s Industrial Production.

Thursday: The Final estimate of June’s Consumer Price Index for the Eurozone will be released. In the U.S., the weekly Housing Starts print will see light, recently being a hair over one million monthly. Also due is the weekly Initial Jobless Claims, still above but close to 300K.

Friday: The University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence Index and the Conference Board’s Leading Index will be released.
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Monday, 30 June 2014

Economic events of this week

 
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Monday: Preliminary estimates on Japan’s Industrial production data are due and analysts expect an annual increase of 1.5%. In the Eurozone, M3 Money Supply data will be published. The U.K. will gain a glimpse of housing-price-fuelling Mortgage Approvals. Preliminary figures of June’s Consumer Price Indices throughout the Eurozone. Indications will be dispersed regarding the U.S. supply side, with the release of the MNI Chicago Business Barometer. Also due in the U.S., May’s Pending Home Sales and Dallas Fed Manufacturing outlook.

Tuesday: The Tankan Business Conditions forecast will be released in Japan. China will see the release of the official and the HSBC’s, manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Indices. The Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Indices will be published in Spain, Italy, France and the U.K alongside the Eurozone aggregate figure. Additionally, labor market data will be released in Germany, in addition to aggregated Eurozone figures. In the U.S., final estimates of June’s Purchasing Managers’ Index will be published, as well as ISM Manufacturing data.

Wednesday: Japan will publish data on its monetary base, recently indicating the number of Yens circulating in the economy to increase by an annual 45.6%. In the U.K., Nationwide House Prices data will be published. Labor market data will be published in Spain, analysts expect to see a 155K decrease in the number of Unemployed. In the U.S., the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index will be published, as well as June’s ADP Employment Change and May’s Factory Orders.

Thursday: The day will kick off with a plethora of Purchasing Managers’ Indices for the service sectors from the Eurozone. The ECB is scheduled to announce interest rates. Analysts, however, expect no change of these, following the previous month’s drop of rates. In the U.S., May’s Trade Balance data will be published, following by June’s Change in Nonfarm Payrolls. Also due is June’s Unemployment rate, currently at 6.3%, as well as the weekly Initial Jobless Claims.

Friday: In Germany, May’s Factory Orders data will be published, recently presenting a 6.3% annual increase.
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Monday, 23 June 2014

Economic events of the coming week

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Monday: Preliminary figures on June’s Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index will be released in Japan, throughout the Eurozone and in the U.S. The HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index will be released in China. May’s Existing Home Sales are due in the U.S., where analysts expect a noteworthy increase to 4.73 million dwellings sold, versus 4.65 million in April.

Tuesday: The IFO Survey will be published in Germany. In the U.S. demand side, the Consumer Confidence Index and May’s New Home Sales data will be released. On the supply side, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index will see light.

Wednesday: June’s Manufacturing Confidence Index will be released in France. Italy’s Consumer Confidence Index will be released. Surging in recent months, the index levels are similar to those on the eve of the great recession. In the U.S. are the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications is expected, May’s Durable Goods Orders and the Q1 National Account’s third estimate.

Thursday: The French Consumer Confidence Index is due to be published, recently not as solid as that of Italy's, however. The bank of England’s Carney is due to speak in London on the central bank’s financial stability report. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims will see light in the U.S., in addition to Personal Income and Spending.

Friday: May’s Jobless Rate will be published in Japan, in addition to the Job-To-Applicant Ratio and various Consumer Price Indices. Preliminary figures on Spain’s Consumer Price Index will be released. Also due are the Eurozone’s Consumer Confidence Index, German Consumer Price Index and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence Index.

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Monday, 16 June 2014

Economic events of this week

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Monday: The Final estimate of the Eurozone’s Consumer Price Index will be released. Analysts expect for it to remain at a moderate annual 0.5%. In the U.S., the Empire Manufacturing survey and May’s Industrial Production data will be released.

Tuesday: May’s Consumer and Producer Price Indices are scheduled for release in the U.K. The ZEW survey will be released in Germany. In the U.S., May’s Consumer Price Index, as well as Housing Starts and Building Permits data will be published.

Wednesday: Japan will publish May’s Trade Balance data, where analyst consensus sees the deficit widening to over a trillion Yen. The U.S. is due to host the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications. The day will also see the all-important FOMC rate decision published – analysts expect the FOMC to order QE3 tapered by another 10 billion dollars, setting it at a monthly 35 billion.

Thursday: April’s All Industry Activity Index will be published in Japan. May’s Retail Sales data will be released in the U.K. In the U.S., both the weekly Initial Jobless Claims, as well as May’s Leading Index will be published.

Friday: Advance figures of June’s Consumer Confidence will be released in the Eurozone.

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Normalizing global monetary policy

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Carney’s support of a more hawkish Bank of England policy quickly translated to the local sovereign bond market. The 2-year Britain Government Bond traded at levels reflecting around 0.82%-0.83% yield during the start of Friday’s session, versus 0.72% at the end of the previous day. The idea of less Sterling infused into the markets has also strengthened it against the dollar by an approximate 0.6%, to a level of 1.694. When this will translate to an actual policy change is a broad question. The Bank of England’s Official Bank Rate has been fixed at 0.5% for more than five years. All analysts currently surveyed on Bloomberg expect the BoE to keep rates unchanged at its upcoming rate announcement, on June 10th. On the other hand, the aforementioned rise in BoE rates means that investors see that taking place sooner or later.

Economic conditions in the U.K. are generally more upbeat than those of other developed economies. For instance, the local Consumer Price Index was last published to indicate a 1.7% year over year increase of prices, after being just shy of 2% in recent months. The same cannot be said regarding many countries in the rest of the Eurozone, with a Eurozone aggregate print indicating a 0.5% annual increase of prices. The bottom line is that the path to normalizing global monetary policy goes through at least one central banker declaring economic settings as reasonable. Mark Carney may just be that central banker.

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Tuesday, 3 June 2014

Economic events of this week

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Monday: Japan’s Ministry of Finance will release data on Capital Investment during Q1. April’s Mortgage Approvals data will be released in the U.K. Analysts expect to see the boiling market slightly cooling down, with an expected 64.5K approvals, versus 67.1K last month. The final estimation of Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for May will be released in the U.S. Also due is the Institute of Supply Management’s Manufacturing Index.  

Tuesday: More data will be provided regarding the U.K. real-estate market, with the release of the Nationwide House Price Index. Unlike mortgages, however, analysts see this indicator continuing its rampant 10.9% annual increase. The Eurozone’s April Unemployment rate, and preliminary May Consumer Price Data are also due. In the U.S., April’s Factory Orders data will be released. 
 
Wednesday: Preliminary indications regarding the Eurozone’s Gross Domestic Product in Q1 will be released. In the U.S., the weekly MBA mortgage applications report is also due, following a negative 1.2% decline released previously. Also expected in the U.S. is May’s ADP Employment Change and April’s Trade Balance.  

Thursday: April’s Factory Orders data will be released in Germany. Analysts expect the month to present a 1.4% monthly increase, following a 2.8% monthly decline in March. On the monetary front, the Bank of England is expected to announce its official bank rate, but analyst consensus tilts towards no change taking place. The ECB is also due to publish rates. Draghi’s dovish tone has certainly shifted analyst consensus to see the ECB to take SOME action. Concluding the day, the weekly Initial Claims will be released in the U.S. 

Friday: U.S. labor market statistics will be released in the shape of May’s change in Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment rate. 

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Monday, 19 May 2014

Economic events of this week




Monday: The Rightmove National Asking Price indicator will be published in the U.K, after surging by 2.6% last month. March’s Machine Orders data will be published in Japan, after those presented a 10.8% annual growth, in the latest figure.

Tuesday: The All Industry Activity Index is due in Japan. Analysts expect last month’s 1.1% decrease reverting to a 1.6% increase. April’s Consumer Price Index is due to be released in the U.K. Analysts expect it to continue indicating a below, but close to 2% annual inflation. The Producer Price Index will also be released in the U.K., but analysts see that presenting milder figures.

Wednesday: The day will see the BoJ issue a monetary policy statement, followed by Governor Kuroda holding a press conference. Retail Sales data will be released in the U.K. This will be followed by the Eurozone’s Consumer Confidence Index. In the U.S., the Fed will release minutes from April’s meeting.

Thursday: The Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index will be published in Japan. China will see the GSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index published. The day will also see PMIs published throughout the Eurozone, namely France, Germany and the Eurozone Aggregate. The U.K will see a preliminary estimation of the first quarter’s GDP being published. In the U.S., the weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be published, after dropping below the critical level of 300K (see above). Further in the U.S., May’s Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index will be published, analysts expect it to increase even higher, from a previous print of 55.4. Also due are Existing Home Sales and the Leading Index.

Friday: The day will kick off with the publishing of Germany’s final estimation of the first quarters’ GDP. This will be followed with the IFO Business Survey. In the U.S., April’s New Home Sales figure will be published.

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Weekly Market Review: Euro continues to weaken against the Dollar




The volatile trading between the Euro and the U.S. dollar, due to speculation of monetary measures enacted by the ECB, morphed into rather muted trading early last week. It started with the Euro being left battered and bruised from Draghi’s dispersion of dovish remarks, and trading at 1.375 Dollar to the Euro, a level unseen since the beginning of April. The weakening of the Euro was re-ignited on Tuesday, as an article on the Wall Street Journal stated that the German Bundesbank would be willing to back the European Central Bank in "an array of stimulus measures". The idea that the Bundesbank, often considered hawkish-oriented in its advocated monetary policy, could support more dovish policy, helped further weaken the Euro - sending it to trade 50 pips lower versus the Dollar, at a level of 1.371.

Wednesday saw the publishing of numerous April European Consumer Price Indices. However, many of those were final estimations of previously announced preliminary figures. Knowing this, investors needed something rather extraordinary in order to shake the markets. Another dosage of the usual muted inflation wouldn’t suffice to send the Euro trading lower versus the Dollar. Evidently, “the usual” was somewhat of understatement to what followed. It started the Germany CPI’s final estimation confirming the preliminary figure at a muted but tolerable 1.1% annual increase, continued with the French CPI presenting 0.7% annual inflation at slightly below analyst expectations of 0.9%, and even saw Spain confirming a positive 0.4% annual inflation print. With nothing out of the ordinary to shake things up, the Euro gained 10 pips against the dollar. 


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Up to a certain point



Market participants saw the Euro slide further versus major currencies on Thursday, fueled by European Central Bank Vice President Vitor Constancio promising the bank would act "swiftly" if needed to battle the low level of inflation prevailing in the Euro Zone. The rest of the day saw the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims published to indicate that only 297K claims have been submitted during the previous week. Aside from breaking the 300K Initial Claims limit, this is also the first time since May 2007 that such a small number of claims were submitted. Interestingly, the effect on the markets was limited, mostly due to the Fed's efforts to make the labor market less cardinal in determining future policy measures. The soon-to-follow release of April’s U.S. Industrial Production decrease by 0.6% Month over Month, versus analyst expectations for a 0.7% increase had a stronger impact on markets sending EUR/USD trading as high as 1.373. Like most rollercoaster rides, this one ended with the EUR/USD at the 1.371 level in which it started.

In conclusion, we see that the ECB's promises of more Dovish measures continued translating to a weaker Euro. However, this only held up to a certain point. With the ECB’s June 5th announcement, showdown is nearing, and no central bank possesses the privilege to fold.


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Monday, 13 January 2014

Economic events of the week




Monday: More info on the recovery of the Eurozone will roll in as Industrial Production data will be released in Italy. Additionally, the U.S. budget statement for December is due to be released.

Tuesday: The Current Account Balance is due to be released in Japan, with analysts expecting the deficit to increase to over Yen -368 billion. The French Consumer Price Index is due, as well as the U.K. Consumer, Producer and Price Indices. December’s U.S. Advance Retail Sales will also see light during the day. 

Wednesday: Preliminary figures regarding Machine Tool Orders are due to be released in Japan. Later that day, Consumer Price Index data are due to be released in Spain. In the U.S., December’s Producer Prices are due to be released.

Thursday: The day will kick off with a slew of reports from Japan, namely the Tertiary Industry Index, Machine Orders and Domestic Corporate Goods Prices. Later that day, December’s Consumer Price Index will be released in Germany, followed by the aggregate figure for the Eurozone and coincidently, the U.S. CPI. Further expected in the U.S. are the Initial Jobless Claims figures. Fed Governor Bernanke is due to deliver a speech at the Brooking Institution. 

Friday: December’s Housing Starts and Industrial Production data will be released in the U.S., followed by the University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence Index for January. 

Tuesday, 7 January 2014

Economic events of the week

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Monday: The HSBC Services Purchasing Managers’ Index will be released in China. Later that day services PMIs will be released in Europe, namely Spain, Italy and France. All these figures will boil down the Eurozone’s Composite Index. More cardinal figures from Europe will be presented in the form of the German Consumer Price Index. Moving to the new world, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index and Factory Orders will be published in the U.S.

Tuesday: Japan’s Monetary Base’s magnitude will be published. Market focus will then shift to Germany, which is due to publish both November’s Retail sales data, as well as Unemployment statistics. Later the day, the Eurozone’s CPI estimate for December will be released, followed by the U.S’s Trade balance.

Wednesday: Trade Balance statistics are due in China. Analysts expect exports to present a 5.2% Year over Year increase, and Imports to present a solid 5% Year over Year increase. Cardinal indicators will be released for the Eurozone, namely November’s Retail Sales and the Unemployment rate, currently at 12.1%. Additionally, Factory Orders will be published in Germany, with analysts expecting a 1.5% Month over Month increase. In the U.S., the MBA Mortgage Applications Index is due, as well as ADP Employment Change. The Fed will release Minutes from its December meeting.

Thursday: The Consumer Confidence Index will be published for the Eurozone. Additionally, November’s Industrial Production figures will be published for Germany. Still in Europe, The Bank of England will publish its official Bank Rate. The ECB will publish its main refinance rate.

Friday: A slew of Industrial and Manufacturing production data will be released in France, Spain and the U.K. The U.S. will see the release of some labor statistics, namely Change in Manufacturing and Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment. 

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Tuesday, 31 December 2013

Strong Euro weights down on Eurozone’s recovery

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As Christmas was celebrated by the Christian world last week, it also carried a considerable portion of market participates away from their trading screen, leading to the tradition annual decrease of volumes. Following a rather muted trading week, EUR/USD reached a 2.5 year peak on Friday. The record price was achieved after the EUR strengthened versus the USD by nearly 1.5% during the day, to approximately 1.389 USD. The current level represents nearly a 15% strengthening of the Euro versus the USD since July 2012’s 1.2 levels.

Consequently, the current EUR/USD levels are going to present a bigger problem for European exporters, as those would receive less Euros for their foreign currency to fund their operations. Alternatively, local producers might have a harder time competing with global supply. For example, Germany’s Import Price Index, published on Monday, indicated an annual -2.9% decrease. Undoubtedly, the strengthening Euro had some part in this. 

While the strengthening Euro may be regarded as an equal problem to all Eurozone members, a bigger issue might be the fact that not all of these members had equally recovered from the great recession. For instance, Germany’s GDP currently increases at an annual pace of 1.1%, supported by a quarterly increase of 0.1% in exports. The French GDP, however, was published last week and indicated a muted 0.2% increase, handicapped by a -1.3% decrease of exports during the last quarter. Evidently, not all shared sorrows are halved sorrows. 

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Strong Euro weights down on Eurozone’s recovery

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As Christmas was celebrated by the Christian world last week, it also carried a considerable portion of market participates away from their trading screen, leading to the tradition annual decrease of volumes. Following a rather muted trading week, EUR/USD reached a 2.5 year peak on Friday. The record price was achieved after the EUR strengthened versus the USD by nearly 1.5% during the day, to approximately 1.389 USD. The current level represents nearly a 15% strengthening of the Euro versus the USD since July 2012’s 1.2 levels.

Consequently, the current EUR/USD levels are going to present a bigger problem for European exporters, as those would receive less Euros for their foreign currency to fund their operations. Alternatively, local producers might have a harder time competing with global supply. For example, Germany’s Import Price Index, published on Monday, indicated an annual -2.9% decrease. Undoubtedly, the strengthening Euro had some part in this. 

While the strengthening Euro may be regarded as an equal problem to all Eurozone members, a bigger issue might be the fact that not all of these members had equally recovered from the great recession. For instance, Germany’s GDP currently increases at an annual pace of 1.1%, supported by a quarterly increase of 0.1% in exports. The French GDP, however, was published last week and indicated a muted 0.2% increase, handicapped by a -1.3% decrease of exports during the last quarter. Evidently, not all shared sorrows are halved sorrows. 
 
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Strong Euro weights down on Eurozone’s recovery

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As Christmas was celebrated by the Christian world last week, it also carried a considerable portion of market participates away from their trading screen, leading to the tradition annual decrease of volumes. Following a rather muted trading week, EUR/USD reached a 2.5 year peak on Friday. The record price was achieved after the EUR strengthened versus the USD by nearly 1.5% during the day, to approximately 1.389 USD. The current level represents nearly a 15% strengthening of the Euro versus the USD since July 2012’s 1.2 levels.

Consequently, the current EUR/USD levels are going to present a bigger problem for European exporters, as those would receive less Euros for their foreign currency to fund their operations. Alternatively, local producers might have a harder time competing with global supply. For example, Germany’s Import Price Index, published on Monday, indicated an annual -2.9% decrease. Undoubtedly, the strengthening Euro had some part in this. 

While the strengthening Euro may be regarded as an equal problem to all Eurozone members, a bigger issue might be the fact that not all of these members had equally recovered from the great recession. For instance, Germany’s GDP currently increases at an annual pace of 1.1%, supported by a quarterly increase of 0.1% in exports. The French GDP, however, was published last week and indicated a muted 0.2% increase, handicapped by a -1.3% decrease of exports during the last quarter. Evidently, not all shared sorrows are halved sorrows. 
 
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Tuesday, 17 December 2013

Economic events of the week

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Monday: In Japan, the Tankan Large Enterprises All Industries Index will be released. In France, preliminary figures for the Purchasing Managers’ Indices in the Manufacturing and Services sectors will be released. Later that day, similar Purchasing Managers’ data will be published for Germany and the Eurozone’s aggregate. In the U.S., Empire Manufacturing Survey will shed some light on how manufacturing executives in the state of New York see the future of the economy. Additionally, U.S. November Industrial Production data will be published, while analysts currently estimate these to revert to positive territory, following last month’s -0.1% decline.

Tuesday: Producer Prices will be published in the U.K., followed by Consumer Prices, both are expected to present moderate to negative figures. German Industry will later take the focus with the publishing of the ZEW surveys, both “expectations” and “current situation”. The Eurozone’s aggregate CPI will also see light, but these are not expected to draw the most market attention, as it follows a previous annual figure indicating only a 0.9% increase. U.S. Consumer Prices and Current Account balance are due to conclude the day.

Wednesday: The day will kick off with Japan releasing its trade balance figures, which may cause some volatility in the USD/JPY. Later the day, IFO surveys will be published in Germany: “Business Climate”, “Current Assessment” and “Expectations”. U.K. labor data will see light in the form of Jobless Claims Change and the ILO Unemployment rate. The U.S. will see some housing data in the form of MBA Mortgage Applications, as well as Housing Starts. Later that day, the Fed is due to release its FOMC rate decision, that will hopefully provide some forward guidance on the future of its monetary policy.

Thursday: The All Industry Activity Index will be released in Japan. This will be followed by some Retails Sales data in the U.K. and then the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, in hope of recovering from last week’s negative figure. 

Friday: Eurozone Consumer Confidence Figures are due. 

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Monday, 2 December 2013

Economic Events of this week

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Monday: Japan’s third quarter Capital Investment data will be published, analysts expect it to indicate an annual 2.8% increase, versus a previous, completely muted figure. In China, “Fiscal forward guidance” will be provided by the HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index. Manufacturing PMI survey results will be published in Italy, France, Germany, and the U.K. the U.S. will see the Markit, and the ISM PMIs being published. 


Tuesday: Japan’s Monetary Base will be published; following October’s figure indicating no less than a 45.8% annual increase of currency in circulation at the BoJ’s vaults. Spanish Unemployment data is also due that day. 


Wednesday: PMI Indices for the services sector will be published throughout the Eurozone. Additionally in the Eurozone, the Preliminary Q3 GDP figure will be published, as analysts expect a barely positive quarterly increase of 0.1%. In the U.S., MBA mortgage applications are due with much anticipation, given last week’s surge of building permits. Some U.S. labor data will be provided by the ADP National Employment report. Later that day, the U.S. Trade Balance data for October and U.S. New Home Sales data will be published. 


Thursday: The BoE will announce U.K.’s bank rate, currently set to 0.5%. Public interest will probably be drawn to the ECB’s rate announcement later that day. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data will be published, as well as the U.S. 3Q GDP’s second estimate. The day will conclude with the U.S. Factory Orders data. 


Friday: Unemployment Rate will be published in the U.S., providing further guidance on when Bernanke\ Yellen will finally have justification to start tapering. U.S Consumer data is also due with the publishing of Personal Income and Spending figures for October, as well as the University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence Sentiment. 

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Black Friday optimism

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Friday presented opportunity for market optimism on both sides of the Atlantic. The Eurozone saw positive data published regarding the demand side, with prices increasing by an estimated 0.9%. Unemployment also provided its fare share as it decreased to 12.1%. That supported the German DAX index and the Spanish IBEX35, closing the week at +1.6% and +1.1% weekly increases respectively. At first, U.S. markets didn’t appear to need any data derived support; Although no positive figure was released in the U.S. on Friday, markets opened with a positive trend, due to optimism based on what appeared to be strong "Black Friday" consumer demand. The S&P 500 gained +0.2% throughout the trading day and the NASDAQ and DJIA complimented with similar figures. This reverted, however, as reports from leading U.S. retailers suggested local demand wasn't as strong as it seemed, leading both the Dow, as well as the S&P to conclude the day in negative territory.


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Tuesday, 26 November 2013

Economic events of this week

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Monday: October’s Pending Home Sales will be published in the U.S., following a nosedive recorded last month. The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook will also be published. 

Tuesday: The Consumer Confidence Index will be published in Italy, the current analyst estimation is that data will not prove optimistic. In the U.S., Housing starts and the Consumer Confidence Index are due. 

Wednesday: Retail Sales data will be published in unemployment-struck Spain. Third quarter’s preliminary GDP data will be published in the U.K., where analyst predict a nearly continent-leading 1.5% year over year growth. MBA Mortgage Applications are due in the U.S. Initial Jobless claims will also make their weekly appearance, in yet another attempt to revert to pre-shutdown levels. U.S. Durable Goods New Orders and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence Index will also be published.

Thursday: The final figure of Spain’s 3Q GDP data will be published. Preliminary inflation figures are also due, as the weak local demand makes analysts predict only a 0.2% annual increase of prices. Unemployment will be published in Germany, following a 6.9% figure recorded during last month. 

Friday: Jobless Rate and Consumer Price Index will be published in Japan. Preliminary Industrial Production figures are also due. Nationwide House Prices will be published in the U.K., while anticipation is for the continued surge of house prices as analysts predict the figure to present a 6.2% annual growth of prices in November, versus 5.8% in Oct. Later that day, the U.K. Mortgage Approvals will be published. The Eurostat will publish its flash estimate for the Eurozone’s Consumer Price Index. 

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Wednesday, 20 November 2013

Economic events of the week

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Monday: The Rightmove House Prices data will shed light on the U.K. real estate sector, amid growing concerns regarding the developing housing price bubble.

Tuesday: ZEW Surveys will be published in Germany, revealing financial market experts’ view on the local economy.

Wednesday: The Fed and the BoE are releasing their Minutes report. Japanese Trade Balance data will be published, current analyst expectations are for a slight improvement to a -851 billion Yens trade deficit. This will be followed by the Japanese All Industry Activity Index, which analysts predict to slightly improve. U.S. Mortgage Applications data will also be published, after growing mortgage rates set October’s applications to a monthly -1.8% decrease. Advance Retail Sales are due, as well as the Consumer Price Index, which is analyst surveyed to present no monthly change. Unemployment data will be published in Russia, which continued to present a strong economy with only a 5.3% datum last month.

Thursday: The day will reveal expectations for future economic recovery for the Eurozone, as Purchasing Managers’ Indices will be published in France, Germany, and the Eurozone’s aggregate. U.S. Jobless claims will make their weekly appearance, and the Bank of Japan will publish its target rate.

Friday: GDP data and the IFO surveys will be published in Germany. ECB’s Draghi will speak in Frankfurt and the Eurogroup will hold a meeting.

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Global perspective

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The world slowly continues its exit from the great recession. However, the global zero rate policies shave their mark in too many financial figures. Japan published a rather impressive Current Account Balance on Monday, presenting an increase to ¥ 587.3 billion. This seems to be the result of an increase at the value of Japanese foreign investment’s income rather than an actual increase of export value. Later that day, China published its Money Supply statistics, indicating a 14.3% annual increase, not highly unusual given the 7.8% GDP increase presented last month.

Unlike monetary data, which are quite volatile nowadays due to the globally low interest rates, tangible indicators appeared much more moderate. The Italian Industrial Production index presented only a 0.2% monthly increase on Monday. A monthly decrease of the same magnitude was presented on Tuesday at the Japanese Tertiary Industry Index of September.

Tuesday also revealed mild price increases throughout the Eurozone. Germany’s CPI presented an annual 1.2% increase. A muted 0.8% increase was recorded in Italy. The U.K., with its relatively upbeat growth compared to the rest of the Eurozone, presented a 2.2% annual increase. Spanish CPI, on the other hand, presented a -0.1% annual decrease on Wednesday.

On Thursday, Japanese GDP presented a 0.5% seasonally adjusted quarterly increase, higher than that of Germany which had only a 0.3% increase, and both were higher than the Eurozone’s 0.1% quarterly increase. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims continued their slow recovery as 339K claims were submitted during the previous week.
The week concluded with the Eurozone’s aggregated price index recording a 0.7% annual increase, and U.S. Industrial Production recording a monthly -0.1% decrease. 

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Monday, 11 November 2013

Economic events of this week

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Monday: Japan’s Balance of Payment Current Account Balance will be published. Industrial Production is due to be released in Italy, with analyst expectations for a Seasonally Adjusted Month over Month 0.2% increase, following two negative figures. 

Tuesday: The M2 Money Stock Index will be released in Japan, in addition to the Tertiary Industry Index. October’s Producer and Consumer Price Indices will see light in the U.K.

Wednesday: Jobless Claims and the ILO Unemployment rate will be released in the U.K. MBA Mortgage Applications will be published in the U.S., in hopes of recovering from the -7.0% decrease of last week.

Thursday: The Preliminary figure for Japan’s Q3 GDP is due, as well as September’s Industrial Production. France, Germany, Italy, and the Eurozone Aggregate will also follow with their Q3 GDP figures, while the latter is still surveyed to present an annually shrinking economy at a rate of -0.3%. Russia is due to publish its Gold and Forex Reserve. In the U.S., Initial Jobless Claims and the U.S.’s Trade Balance will be published. Fed’s Governor Bernanke is scheduled to speak.

Friday: The Eurozone’s Consumer Price Index will be published. In the U.S., the Empire Manufacturing Survey and Industrial Production will see light. 

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