Economic events of the week

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Monday: More info on the recovery of the Eurozone will roll in as Industrial Production data will be released in Italy. Additionally, the U.S. budget statement for December is due to be released.

Tuesday: The Current Account Balance is due to be released in Japan, with analysts expecting the deficit to increase to over Yen -368 billion. The French Consumer Price Index is due, as well as the U.K. Consumer, Producer and Price Indices. December’s U.S. Advance Retail Sales will also see light during the day. 

Wednesday: Preliminary figures regarding Machine Tool Orders are due to be released in Japan. Later that day, Consumer Price Index data are due to be released in Spain. In the U.S., December’s Producer Prices are due to be released.

Thursday: The day will kick off with a slew of reports from Japan, namely the Tertiary Industry Index, Machine Orders and Domestic Corporate Goods Prices. Later that day, December’s Consumer Price Index will be released in Germany, followed by the aggregate figure for the Eurozone and coincidently, the U.S. CPI. Further expected in the U.S. are the Initial Jobless Claims figures. Fed Governor Bernanke is due to deliver a speech at the Brooking Institution. 

Friday: December’s Housing Starts and Industrial Production data will be released in the U.S., followed by the University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence Index for January. 

Economic events of the week

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Monday: The HSBC Services Purchasing Managers’ Index will be released in China. Later that day services PMIs will be released in Europe, namely Spain, Italy and France. All these figures will boil down the Eurozone’s Composite Index. More cardinal figures from Europe will be presented in the form of the German Consumer Price Index. Moving to the new world, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index and Factory Orders will be published in the U.S.

Tuesday: Japan’s Monetary Base’s magnitude will be published. Market focus will then shift to Germany, which is due to publish both November’s Retail sales data, as well as Unemployment statistics. Later the day, the Eurozone’s CPI estimate for December will be released, followed by the U.S’s Trade balance.

Wednesday: Trade Balance statistics are due in China. Analysts expect exports to present a 5.2% Year over Year increase, and Imports to present a solid 5% Year over Year increase. Cardinal indicators will be released for the Eurozone, namely November’s Retail Sales and the Unemployment rate, currently at 12.1%. Additionally, Factory Orders will be published in Germany, with analysts expecting a 1.5% Month over Month increase. In the U.S., the MBA Mortgage Applications Index is due, as well as ADP Employment Change. The Fed will release Minutes from its December meeting.

Thursday: The Consumer Confidence Index will be published for the Eurozone. Additionally, November’s Industrial Production figures will be published for Germany. Still in Europe, The Bank of England will publish its official Bank Rate. The ECB will publish its main refinance rate.

Friday: A slew of Industrial and Manufacturing production data will be released in France, Spain and the U.K. The U.S. will see the release of some labor statistics, namely Change in Manufacturing and Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment. 

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2014 starts with markets uncertainty

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The year 2013 came to an end, and most trading sessions ranged from generally muted to somewhat edgy, but were unable to pick any specific direction. Some unexpected trading was provided by the gold and silver markets as the precious metals saw their price drop during the day to as low as $1,182 and $18.83 respectively. However, the dip quickly reverted shortly after, as a correction an hour later saw gold trading over pre-dip levels to as high as $1,209, while silver surged to nearly $19.8. A similar case was evident at the previous week’s Initial Jobless Claims data, released on Thursday. In addition to beating expectations for 344K new claims, with a print of 339K, the figure marked a hefty decrease from the previous week’s revised figure of 341K. It is mostly positive to see a declining trend of claims, but it is hard to miss the fact that the figure never really recovered from the Government Shutdown, as it Is now approximately at the same levels as five months ago. With the tapering already underway, positive claims data continued to raise concerns for reduced Fed purchases, continuing the last months’ ritual of positive labor data boiling down to pessimism on the equity markets. The S&P 500 lost -0.75% during the day, and the NASDAQ dropped approximately -0.4%. Thursday’s bear market did not last long, as optimism regained on Friday, for no apparent reason - leading the trading session seeing markets regain some of the previous day’s losses. Register at ANYOPTION and start trading TODAY!

Economic events of the Week

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Monday: November Retail Sales are due in Spain, following a Year over Year decrease of -0.6%, expectations are low for this one. The other side of the European continent expresses more optimism as December’s Italy Business Confidence is analyst surveyed to indicate a 0.9 point improvement. The day will conclude with the publishing of Consumer Price Indices in Russia.

Tuesday: The day will see mostly U.S. data, namely the publishing of the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index and the Consumer Confidence Index.

Wednesday: The first day of 2014 will see the publishing of the official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index in China.

Thursday: The unofficial HSBC/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index is due and is expected to present a more pessimistic image of Chinese economy with an analyst estimation of 50.5 points vs. the official PMI’s 51.2. The day will also see the publishing of Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Indices throughout the Eurozone, namely Italy, France, Germany and the U.K. U.S. Initial Claims, U.S. ISM Manufacturing and ISM Prices Paid are due later that day.

Friday: Europe will draw most of the day’s attention. The busy day will start as the nationwide House prices will be published in the U.K. Analysts expect the figure to be revised upwards from an annual increase of 6.5%, recorded last month, to no less than 7.1% on this month’s figure. Preliminary estimations of the Spanish CPI are also due. More attention will be taken by the U.K. real-estate sector with the publishing of November’s mortgage approvals – analysts expect this figure to continue increasing. Italian Consumer Price Index and Spanish Unemployment will also be published. 

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More signs of recovery

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The EUR/USD rate was not the only financial asset to set new records last week. On Friday, the U.S. 10-year yields finally surpassed the 3% landmark. This is quite a latent, but not entirely unexpected reaction to the previous week’s tapering. In spite of the 10 year yields already surpassing 3% in September 2013, that case is mostly attributed to volatile anticipation for tapering, but this time the tapering is a solid, given fact. The U.S. 10 year yield serves as a benchmark for numerous interest rates. These range from those affecting the real-estate market, such as mortgages, to those fueling equities such as corporate bonds. The low corporate bond interest rates have been regarded as catalysts of soaring equity prices lately. These led to the S&P 500 rising by nearly 30% since the beginning of the year. Likewise, the low mortgage rates in the U.S. may be regarded as primary contributors to the FHFA U.S. House Price Index recording an 8.2% annual increase in October. The affect higher U.S. Government bond yields would have on U.S. assets such as equities and real estate remains to be seen. Register at ANYOPTION and start trading TODAY!

Strong Euro weights down on Eurozone’s recovery

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As Christmas was celebrated by the Christian world last week, it also carried a considerable portion of market participates away from their trading screen, leading to the tradition annual decrease of volumes. Following a rather muted trading week, EUR/USD reached a 2.5 year peak on Friday. The record price was achieved after the EUR strengthened versus the USD by nearly 1.5% during the day, to approximately 1.389 USD. The current level represents nearly a 15% strengthening of the Euro versus the USD since July 2012’s 1.2 levels.

Consequently, the current EUR/USD levels are going to present a bigger problem for European exporters, as those would receive less Euros for their foreign currency to fund their operations. Alternatively, local producers might have a harder time competing with global supply. For example, Germany’s Import Price Index, published on Monday, indicated an annual -2.9% decrease. Undoubtedly, the strengthening Euro had some part in this. 

While the strengthening Euro may be regarded as an equal problem to all Eurozone members, a bigger issue might be the fact that not all of these members had equally recovered from the great recession. For instance, Germany’s GDP currently increases at an annual pace of 1.1%, supported by a quarterly increase of 0.1% in exports. The French GDP, however, was published last week and indicated a muted 0.2% increase, handicapped by a -1.3% decrease of exports during the last quarter. Evidently, not all shared sorrows are halved sorrows. 

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Strong Euro weights down on Eurozone’s recovery

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As Christmas was celebrated by the Christian world last week, it also carried a considerable portion of market participates away from their trading screen, leading to the tradition annual decrease of volumes. Following a rather muted trading week, EUR/USD reached a 2.5 year peak on Friday. The record price was achieved after the EUR strengthened versus the USD by nearly 1.5% during the day, to approximately 1.389 USD. The current level represents nearly a 15% strengthening of the Euro versus the USD since July 2012’s 1.2 levels.

Consequently, the current EUR/USD levels are going to present a bigger problem for European exporters, as those would receive less Euros for their foreign currency to fund their operations. Alternatively, local producers might have a harder time competing with global supply. For example, Germany’s Import Price Index, published on Monday, indicated an annual -2.9% decrease. Undoubtedly, the strengthening Euro had some part in this. 

While the strengthening Euro may be regarded as an equal problem to all Eurozone members, a bigger issue might be the fact that not all of these members had equally recovered from the great recession. For instance, Germany’s GDP currently increases at an annual pace of 1.1%, supported by a quarterly increase of 0.1% in exports. The French GDP, however, was published last week and indicated a muted 0.2% increase, handicapped by a -1.3% decrease of exports during the last quarter. Evidently, not all shared sorrows are halved sorrows. 
 
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