Economic events of the coming week

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Monday: Preliminary figures on June’s Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index will be released in Japan, throughout the Eurozone and in the U.S. The HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index will be released in China. May’s Existing Home Sales are due in the U.S., where analysts expect a noteworthy increase to 4.73 million dwellings sold, versus 4.65 million in April. Tuesday: The IFO Survey will be published in Germany. In the U.S. demand side, the Consumer Confidence Index and May’s New Home Sales data will be released. On the supply side, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index will see light. Wednesday: June’s Manufacturing Confidence Index will be released in France. Italy’s Consumer Confidence Index will be released. Surging in recent months, the index levels are similar to those on the eve of the great recession. In the U.S. are the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications is expected, May’s Durable Goods Orders and the Q1 National Account’s third estimate. Thursday: The French Consumer Confidence Index is due to be published, recently not as solid as that of Italy's, however. The bank of England’s Carney is due to speak in London on the central bank’s financial stability report. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims will see light in the U.S., in addition to Personal Income and Spending. Friday: May’s Jobless Rate will be published in Japan, in addition to the Job-To-Applicant Ratio and various Consumer Price Indices. Preliminary figures on Spain’s Consumer Price Index will be released. Also due are the Eurozone’s Consumer Confidence Index, German Consumer Price Index and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence Index. Join Anyoption and take advantage of the volatility of the markets ..Start Trading TODAY!

Economic truths are seldom one-dimensional

Digging into the different subcomponents of the GDP reveals a clearer image. The “inventory” component accounted for most of the negative headline figure, as it alone trimmed no less than 1.6% of it, after chipping off a mere 0.6% in the original estimate. One possible interpretation for this is that businesses expected muted future demand, and were de-stocking in order to avoid being left with merchandise. Another interpretation would be that demand was larger than expected at the start of the quarter, and that alone has led to the de-stocking. 

The latter explanation is supported by the fact that the "personal consumption" component has contributed an annualized 2.1% to the product. Naturally, in this case, diminishing stock inventories would need to be filled, leading to an unavoidable increase of future GDP. Also supporting the premise that the negative print was a one-timer was the fact that Government expenditure was revised downwards to chip 0.15% off the nation's product.


The weekly Initial Jobless claims was released at the same time as the GDP. Unlike the GDP, Initial claims indicated increasing demand at the labor market as it saw exactly 300K weekly claims submitted, from a previous print of 326K. The following day even saw the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis report of a 0.3% increase in April’s Personal Income. Additional positive indicators published on Friday included the Chicago Business Barometer rising to a level of 65.5 from a previous print of 63.0, as well as the University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence Index presenting an upbeat print of 82.5, from a previous 81.9. Combining the above with the fact that equity markets traded noticeably higher depicts the fact that economic truths are seldom one-dimensional. 

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Economic events of the week

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Monday: The HSBC Services Purchasing Managers’ Index will be released in China. Later that day services PMIs will be released in Europe, namely Spain, Italy and France. All these figures will boil down the Eurozone’s Composite Index. More cardinal figures from Europe will be presented in the form of the German Consumer Price Index. Moving to the new world, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index and Factory Orders will be published in the U.S.

Tuesday: Japan’s Monetary Base’s magnitude will be published. Market focus will then shift to Germany, which is due to publish both November’s Retail sales data, as well as Unemployment statistics. Later the day, the Eurozone’s CPI estimate for December will be released, followed by the U.S’s Trade balance.

Wednesday: Trade Balance statistics are due in China. Analysts expect exports to present a 5.2% Year over Year increase, and Imports to present a solid 5% Year over Year increase. Cardinal indicators will be released for the Eurozone, namely November’s Retail Sales and the Unemployment rate, currently at 12.1%. Additionally, Factory Orders will be published in Germany, with analysts expecting a 1.5% Month over Month increase. In the U.S., the MBA Mortgage Applications Index is due, as well as ADP Employment Change. The Fed will release Minutes from its December meeting.

Thursday: The Consumer Confidence Index will be published for the Eurozone. Additionally, November’s Industrial Production figures will be published for Germany. Still in Europe, The Bank of England will publish its official Bank Rate. The ECB will publish its main refinance rate.

Friday: A slew of Industrial and Manufacturing production data will be released in France, Spain and the U.K. The U.S. will see the release of some labor statistics, namely Change in Manufacturing and Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment. 

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Economic events of the Week

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Monday: November Retail Sales are due in Spain, following a Year over Year decrease of -0.6%, expectations are low for this one. The other side of the European continent expresses more optimism as December’s Italy Business Confidence is analyst surveyed to indicate a 0.9 point improvement. The day will conclude with the publishing of Consumer Price Indices in Russia.

Tuesday: The day will see mostly U.S. data, namely the publishing of the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index and the Consumer Confidence Index.

Wednesday: The first day of 2014 will see the publishing of the official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index in China.

Thursday: The unofficial HSBC/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index is due and is expected to present a more pessimistic image of Chinese economy with an analyst estimation of 50.5 points vs. the official PMI’s 51.2. The day will also see the publishing of Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Indices throughout the Eurozone, namely Italy, France, Germany and the U.K. U.S. Initial Claims, U.S. ISM Manufacturing and ISM Prices Paid are due later that day.

Friday: Europe will draw most of the day’s attention. The busy day will start as the nationwide House prices will be published in the U.K. Analysts expect the figure to be revised upwards from an annual increase of 6.5%, recorded last month, to no less than 7.1% on this month’s figure. Preliminary estimations of the Spanish CPI are also due. More attention will be taken by the U.K. real-estate sector with the publishing of November’s mortgage approvals – analysts expect this figure to continue increasing. Italian Consumer Price Index and Spanish Unemployment will also be published. 

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Positive data-backed momentum

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Last week, equity trading provided another opportunity to admire the optimism recently present in the markets.

The week kicked off with the NASDAQ composite index topping over 4,000 points. Market belief that the Fed’s market supporting actions will continue was presented too – the increase of bidding over bonds offered by the U.S. Treasury led Monday’s Bids-to-Cover ratio up to 3.54, an impressive jump from October’s 3.09. Moreover, the interim deal concluded between the P5+1 and Iran over Iran’s nuclear program helped nudge oil prices downwards, which fueled corporations' expectations for cheaper forthcoming energy prices.

Tuesday, provided an opportunity for the NASDAQ to really shine as it passed the 4K mark again, and closed the trading day there, for the first time in 13 years. The positive trading day was backed by U.S. Building Permit statistics, which indicated that 1,034K annualized new permits were granted in October. On the one hand, this is the highest figure since January 2008. On the other hand, it could be a latent response to the recent Federal Government Shutdown, so it will be interesting to re-examine those figures in November.

 The day also saw the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index losing two points to a level of 70.4. The same positive momentum continued on Wednesday as Initial Jobless Claims dropped by 10K versus the previous week. 

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Economic events of this week

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Monday: October’s Pending Home Sales will be published in the U.S., following a nosedive recorded last month. The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook will also be published. 

Tuesday: The Consumer Confidence Index will be published in Italy, the current analyst estimation is that data will not prove optimistic. In the U.S., Housing starts and the Consumer Confidence Index are due. 

Wednesday: Retail Sales data will be published in unemployment-struck Spain. Third quarter’s preliminary GDP data will be published in the U.K., where analyst predict a nearly continent-leading 1.5% year over year growth. MBA Mortgage Applications are due in the U.S. Initial Jobless claims will also make their weekly appearance, in yet another attempt to revert to pre-shutdown levels. U.S. Durable Goods New Orders and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence Index will also be published.

Thursday: The final figure of Spain’s 3Q GDP data will be published. Preliminary inflation figures are also due, as the weak local demand makes analysts predict only a 0.2% annual increase of prices. Unemployment will be published in Germany, following a 6.9% figure recorded during last month. 

Friday: Jobless Rate and Consumer Price Index will be published in Japan. Preliminary Industrial Production figures are also due. Nationwide House Prices will be published in the U.K., while anticipation is for the continued surge of house prices as analysts predict the figure to present a 6.2% annual growth of prices in November, versus 5.8% in Oct. Later that day, the U.K. Mortgage Approvals will be published. The Eurostat will publish its flash estimate for the Eurozone’s Consumer Price Index. 

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