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Showing posts with label Q1. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Q1. Show all posts

Monday, 23 June 2014

Economic events of the coming week

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Monday: Preliminary figures on June’s Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index will be released in Japan, throughout the Eurozone and in the U.S. The HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index will be released in China. May’s Existing Home Sales are due in the U.S., where analysts expect a noteworthy increase to 4.73 million dwellings sold, versus 4.65 million in April.

Tuesday: The IFO Survey will be published in Germany. In the U.S. demand side, the Consumer Confidence Index and May’s New Home Sales data will be released. On the supply side, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index will see light.

Wednesday: June’s Manufacturing Confidence Index will be released in France. Italy’s Consumer Confidence Index will be released. Surging in recent months, the index levels are similar to those on the eve of the great recession. In the U.S. are the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications is expected, May’s Durable Goods Orders and the Q1 National Account’s third estimate.

Thursday: The French Consumer Confidence Index is due to be published, recently not as solid as that of Italy's, however. The bank of England’s Carney is due to speak in London on the central bank’s financial stability report. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims will see light in the U.S., in addition to Personal Income and Spending.

Friday: May’s Jobless Rate will be published in Japan, in addition to the Job-To-Applicant Ratio and various Consumer Price Indices. Preliminary figures on Spain’s Consumer Price Index will be released. Also due are the Eurozone’s Consumer Confidence Index, German Consumer Price Index and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence Index.

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Tuesday, 3 June 2014

The winter’s final backlash


Forecasts for the second estimate of the U.S. Q1 Gross Domestic Product, released last Thursday, were not excessively optimistic. The preliminary estimate for the figure, released on April 30th, saw the U.S. economy expand by an annualized 0.1% during the quarter. However, as the effect of bad weather settled in analysts’ economic models, it dragged their estimation for the second print to a contraction of 0.5%. When the second estimate’s data was actually published, it presented an annualized 1% decrease of GDP.

The recent datum marked the first quarter in three years in which the U.S. economy presents a contraction. Surprisingly, the effect the bad news had on the markets was somewhat limited. Expectations of the Fed prolonging its aggressive monetary activity were not evident in the U.S. bond yields, as the 10 year presented little change immediately after the publishing. U.S. equity Markets also exhibited with a rather muted reaction with the NASDAQ clearing the day at a 0.5% gain, and the Dow Jones adding 0.4%.


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