Not everyone is dovish in the E.U.

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The ECB’s decision to cut interest rates, on June 5th, helped push the notion that monetary stimulus has yet to become a thing of the past, and that the only monetary tone at the European Union is a dovish one. The dovish approach is willing to stimulate the economy through accommodative monetary policy, even at the expense of the risk of inflating a financial bubble or two. It also made global central banks, such as the Fed, more cautious in regards with dispersing hawkish forward guidance. Evidently, with the ever-more-important role monetary policy took in shaping economic activity in recent years, comments going against the stream are prone to be retorted with a violent capital market response. This premise, however, was countered last Thursday by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, who delivered a rather hawkish speech At the Lord Mayor’s Banquet for Bankers and Merchants of the City of London. In his speech, Carney mentioned strong indicators regarding the United Kingdom’s economy, such as the Bank of England’s staff projection of an annualized 4% increase of GDP. On the other hand, Carney described the economy as "over-levered" and its housing market as having a potential to "overheat". Additionally, the weak Sterling was insinuated to lead current deficit to a record level. Deeming necessary a remedy to the above situation, Carney moved on to note of "great speculation" regarding the exact timing of the first rate hike. The tone then turned rather hawkish as Carney said that the decision for the first rate hike is becoming "more balanced" and that "it could happen sooner than markets currently expect".

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Weekly Market Review: Euro continues to weaken against the Dollar

The volatile trading between the Euro and the U.S. dollar, due to speculation of monetary measures enacted by the ECB, morphed into rather muted trading early last week. It started with the Euro being left battered and bruised from Draghi’s dispersion of dovish remarks, and trading at 1.375 Dollar to the Euro, a level unseen since the beginning of April. The weakening of the Euro was re-ignited on Tuesday, as an article on the Wall Street Journal stated that the German Bundesbank would be willing to back the European Central Bank in "an array of stimulus measures". The idea that the Bundesbank, often considered hawkish-oriented in its advocated monetary policy, could support more dovish policy, helped further weaken the Euro - sending it to trade 50 pips lower versus the Dollar, at a level of 1.371. Wednesday saw the publishing of numerous April European Consumer Price Indices. However, many of those were final estimations of previously announced preliminary figures. Knowing this, investors needed something rather extraordinary in order to shake the markets. Another dosage of the usual muted inflation wouldn’t suffice to send the Euro trading lower versus the Dollar. Evidently, “the usual” was somewhat of understatement to what followed. It started the Germany CPI’s final estimation confirming the preliminary figure at a muted but tolerable 1.1% annual increase, continued with the French CPI presenting 0.7% annual inflation at slightly below analyst expectations of 0.9%, and even saw Spain confirming a positive 0.4% annual inflation print. With nothing out of the ordinary to shake things up, the Euro gained 10 pips against the dollar.

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Up to a certain point

Market participants saw the Euro slide further versus major currencies on Thursday, fueled by European Central Bank Vice President Vitor Constancio promising the bank would act "swiftly" if needed to battle the low level of inflation prevailing in the Euro Zone. The rest of the day saw the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims published to indicate that only 297K claims have been submitted during the previous week. Aside from breaking the 300K Initial Claims limit, this is also the first time since May 2007 that such a small number of claims were submitted. Interestingly, the effect on the markets was limited, mostly due to the Fed's efforts to make the labor market less cardinal in determining future policy measures. The soon-to-follow release of April’s U.S. Industrial Production decrease by 0.6% Month over Month, versus analyst expectations for a 0.7% increase had a stronger impact on markets sending EUR/USD trading as high as 1.373. Like most rollercoaster rides, this one ended with the EUR/USD at the 1.371 level in which it started. In conclusion, we see that the ECB's promises of more Dovish measures continued translating to a weaker Euro. However, this only held up to a certain point. With the ECB’s June 5th announcement, showdown is nearing, and no central bank possesses the privilege to fold. Start Trading NOW!!

Yellen’s market confirmation

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Professor Janet Yellen testified before the Senate on Thursday, after being nominated the next head of the Fed. Yellen, 67, provided markets with an impressive presentation, in spite of difficult questions hammered by senators from all sides of the political arena. Yellen reaffirmed her reputation as a dovish Governor. When asked by Senator Tim Johnson about the Future of the Quantitative Easing amid slowly recovering job markets, her response was that she “would be strongly committed to working with the Federal Open Market Committee to continue promoting robust economic recovery”. Yellen continued stressing this dovish line when she later commented that it is “important not to remove the support when the recovery remains fragile”. Yellen’s words contributed a positive tone at equity markets, however, unlike the optimism we are used to from Bernanke’s comments in the past, markets seem to grasp that QE cannot last indefinitely. In addition to volatile increases throughout the testimony, the S&P 500 index saw an approximate 1.2% increase throughout the trading day. A more moderate tone was recorded at the Dow index, which gained only a 0.3% over the previous day and the NASDAQ composite index, which recorded only about a 0.2% increase. Yellen also said that the quantitative easing could not go on forever, as it created “potential risks for financial stability”. With an annual Consumer Price Index increase of 1.2%, it is unclear what could stop the fed from printing more cash and infusing that into the economy. As the Fed’s purchases already contributed to the 36% U.S. Monetary Base growth throughout the year, it would be difficult for Yellen to fend off critics arguing that inflation would pick up when interest rates finally return to pre-crisis levels. Register at ANYOPTION and start trading TODAY!

Economic events of this week

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Monday: Japan’s Balance of Payment Current Account Balance will be published. Industrial Production is due to be released in Italy, with analyst expectations for a Seasonally Adjusted Month over Month 0.2% increase, following two negative figures. 

Tuesday: The M2 Money Stock Index will be released in Japan, in addition to the Tertiary Industry Index. October’s Producer and Consumer Price Indices will see light in the U.K.

Wednesday: Jobless Claims and the ILO Unemployment rate will be released in the U.K. MBA Mortgage Applications will be published in the U.S., in hopes of recovering from the -7.0% decrease of last week.

Thursday: The Preliminary figure for Japan’s Q3 GDP is due, as well as September’s Industrial Production. France, Germany, Italy, and the Eurozone Aggregate will also follow with their Q3 GDP figures, while the latter is still surveyed to present an annually shrinking economy at a rate of -0.3%. Russia is due to publish its Gold and Forex Reserve. In the U.S., Initial Jobless Claims and the U.S.’s Trade Balance will be published. Fed’s Governor Bernanke is scheduled to speak.

Friday: The Eurozone’s Consumer Price Index will be published. In the U.S., the Empire Manufacturing Survey and Industrial Production will see light. 

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French socialist revolution faces hardships

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It has been a year and a half since François Hollande was elected president in France. Upon entering his position, Hollande made a rather brave set of economic reforms, as he favored the increase of income tax over the prior plan to increase Value Added Tax. However, the decreased incentive to conduct business in the country had its toll on the country's bottom line. Half a year later, Hollande was forced to increase VAT, while providing corporations with tax benefits.

Last week marked a new low for the French socialist revolution, as rating agency Standard & Poor's announced cutting France's sovereign credit rating to "AA". S&P's announcement criticized Hollande's Government for incompetence of reducing its spending and supporting economic growth. Specifically, S&P called France's "fiscal stability" constrained by too high tax levels on one hand, and inflated Government expenditure on the other hand, which S&P believes to be out of control.

Adding insult to injury, France's Industrial Production output was published on Friday, revealing only a -0.5% Month over Month decrease in September, in addition to a worsening trade deficit. Pierre Moscovici, the French finance minister, commented in a statement that he regrets what he referred to as S&P's “critical and inaccurate judgment", while adding that “Never has a government carried out so many reforms in such a short time and in such a difficult economic environment”. Moscovici concluded that in spite of the rating cut, France's rating remains high compared to other world nations. Markets apparently shared the same view with as Moscovici, as France’s sovereign bonds continue trading at roughly the same prices throughout the day. 

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Pessimism, responsible monetarism & other spinoffs

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Last week kicked off with Fed Governor Jim Bullard trying to fan rising concerns about the Fed's Treasury holdings of the U.S. Government debt being too big. Bullard said that he does not want to support "fiscal recklessness", and that the Fed's holdings of debt (relatively to the U.S. Gross Domestic Product), is no larger than it was in historical periods. Bullard added: "We are going to target inflation and be held accountable for it", implying that the Fed will not let its money printing push prices upwards beyond control. 

In China, however, there were concerns of a possible inflation. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang noted in a speech recently that "our outstanding M2 money supply has at the end of March exceeded 100 trillion Yuan, and that is already twice the size of our Gross Domestic Product… there is already a lot of money in the 'pool'; to print more money may lead to inflation".

Meanwhile in Europe, the European Commission grew a tad pessimistic over exiting the recession. On Tuesday, the Commission cut the Eurozone's 2014 growth prospects from 1.2% to 1.1%. This growing pessimism must have had a significant effect on the European Central Bank, as two days later it decided to join the monetary party by announcing a 25 basis points cut of its main refinancing rate to 0.25%. Needless to mention, the effect on the EUR/USD was quite massive.

Now with global rates set ultra-low and equity markets past impressive gains, vacant capital naturally seeks new lucrative investment ventures. One of these seems to have been Bitcoin, as the crypto currency surged to an all-time high and passed the $300 mark on Thursday. Other capital rushed to the very successful Initial Public Offering of the popular Twitter microblogging service, on the same day. 

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Economic events of this week

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Monday: The Purchasing Manager’s Index for the Manufacturing sector will be published in Italy, France, Germany and the Eurozone. Factory orders will be published in the U.S. 

Tuesday: The annual growth of the Japanese Monetary Base will be published, while the last figure indicated no less than a 46.1% annual growth since last year. The BoJ Governor Kuroda will hold a speech in Osaka in a Business Leaders meeting. The Royal Bank of Australia will announce its rate decision. Net change in Unemployment will also be published in Spain, with analysts expecting no less than 82K employees entering the economy. The Troika is scheduled to return to Greece for a bailout review. Halifax House Price indices will be published and shed further light on the magnitude of the suspected U.K. housing bubble.

Wednesday: A lot of second-third tier data will be published, including European PMI indices for the service sectors, Industrial and Manufacturing Production in the U.K., Retail Sales across the Eurozone and German Factory Orders. The Leading Index will also be published in the U.S.

Thursday: Iran is set to convene with the P5+1 and discuss the former's nuclear program. Industrial Production will be published in Germany. The Bank of England will announce its official rate, and the ECB is set to do the same for the Eurozone, followed with Draghi holding a post rate decision press conference. Initial Jobless Claims will be published in the U.S., with analysts expecting further decreases towards pre-shutdown levels. Additionally in the U.S., advanced GDP levels will be published, and in the equity front, the Initial Public Offering of Twitter will take place.

Friday: French Industrial Production data will be published, as well as U.S. change in Nonfarm payrolls and Canadian and U.S. Unemployment. U.S. consumer statistics will conclude the week, namely U.S. Personal Income and Spending, and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence. 

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Assessing the wind’s direction

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The U.S. economy showed mixed signs at the beginning of last week. Industrial Production data for September presented an impressive 0.6% increase. Manufacturing Production, on the other hand, presented only a negligible 0.1% increase, versus expectations for 0.3%. This was the result of increases in carmakers' output withheld by declines in furniture, appliances and computers.

Wednesday presented growing anticipation to the publishing of Fed’s rate decision. As expected, the announcement did not suggest tapering is imminent by any means, yet noted that the U.S. economy is expanding at a moderate pace. As monthly purchases were kept at the usual 85 billion Dollars a month, the statement did suggest that the Government shutdown did not cause major damage to the economy. While in the September announcement the Fed was concerned that the higher market rates could lead to slower improvement in the economy, the same was not mentioned in Wednesday’s announcement.

Thursday was probably the surprise of the week. In Chicago, it seems that no bad impact was recorded from the government shutdown, as the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index surged to a 31-month high. However, it was interpreted as bad news by equity markets, which saw the good figure as something that could induce a sooner QE3 tapering by the Fed. Whether Chicago is the prophet for an emerging U.S. economy or whether we are just going to see a surge of inventories next month, is yet to be seen.

The hectic week concluded on Friday with the publishing of the ISM manufacturing survey. Similar to the Fed’s announcement, survey participants did not identify impact on their business from the Government’s shutdown as the survey presented an impressive figure of 56.4, beating expectations for a 55.0 print, with exports surging 5 points to 57. However, unlike Thursday’s equity pessimism due to concerns of resulting tapering, Friday marked quite a positive day for equities with the Dow presenting a 0.45% daily increase, and the S&P 500 index with a 0.29% increase.

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