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Monday 16 June 2014

Not everyone is dovish in the E.U.

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The ECB’s decision to cut interest rates, on June 5th, helped push the notion that monetary stimulus has yet to become a thing of the past, and that the only monetary tone at the European Union is a dovish one. The dovish approach is willing to stimulate the economy through accommodative monetary policy, even at the expense of the risk of inflating a financial bubble or two. It also made global central banks, such as the Fed, more cautious in regards with dispersing hawkish forward guidance. Evidently, with the ever-more-important role monetary policy took in shaping economic activity in recent years, comments going against the stream are prone to be retorted with a violent capital market response. This premise, however, was countered last Thursday by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, who delivered a rather hawkish speech At the Lord Mayor’s Banquet for Bankers and Merchants of the City of London.

In his speech, Carney mentioned strong indicators regarding the United Kingdom’s economy, such as the Bank of England’s staff projection of an annualized 4% increase of GDP. On the other hand, Carney described the economy as "over-levered" and its housing market as having a potential to "overheat". Additionally, the weak Sterling was insinuated to lead current deficit to a record level. Deeming necessary a remedy to the above situation, Carney moved on to note of "great speculation" regarding the exact timing of the first rate hike. The tone then turned rather hawkish as Carney said that the decision for the first rate hike is becoming "more balanced" and that "it could happen sooner than markets currently expect". 

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